COMMENTARY, June 12 — The country’s political scenario is largely unchanged since the 80s when Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad was prime minister. It is dominated by the same personalities with one or two ‘guest stars’ making the occasional appearance.
In keeping with the movie analogy, Dr Mahathir is still the main cast member even now, with Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim as the supporting actor and Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin as the guest star.
Each one wants to be the leading man and the scramble for the ‘top-billing role’ is growing more intense as the July 14 Parliament sitting draws ever closer.
However, Dr Mahathir has now been relegated to the role of an outsider as he does not belong to any party while his case waits to be heard in court, and of course, Anwar represents the Pakatan Harapan (PH) alliance of Opposition parties and Muhyiddin is the leader of the ruling Perikatan Nasional (PN).
Dr Mahathir and Anwar plan to table a vote of no confidence in Muhyiddin as both feel that he has robbed them of the prime minister’s post despite most Malaysians appearing to have accepted him as the legal and legitimate leader of the country.
The problem now is PH had Dr Mahathir as prime minister for 22 months before he resigned, which in turn brought down the government, and now he appears to want the post for a third time.
PH, however, seems not to want a repeat performance by Dr Mahathir, with Anwar coming to the fore as the preferred candidate.
Two weeks ago, Parti Amanah Negara (Amanah) deputy president Salahuddin Ayub said the Opposition had enough numbers to force a change of government through a vote of no confidence during the July Parliament sitting.
On the other hand, former Perak Speaker from DAP, Datuk Ngeh Koo Ham, had on Tuesday urged the prime minister not to call a snap election if the Opposition’s vote of no confidence succeeds.
So the Opposition appears to be at two minds over the matter, with Anwar on Wednesday saying that it has 107 MPs on its side, which is below the required number of 112 to pull off a successful vote of no confidence.
Chances are Muhyiddin will not escape the tabling of a no-confidence vote but he will survive it as he has proven his leadership skills during the Covid-19 pandemic and Malaysians generally seem to like him.
As a result, he may decide to continue even with a marginal majority because calling a snap election now might not be a good option amid the current Covid-19 fight.
The cost of running a general election may also be a determining factor as Muhyiddin has disbursed billions to aid Malaysians affected by the pandemic while also attempting to rebuild the economy.
Despite being under tremendous pressure and threats, he may choose to ignore this for the moment as he continues to focus on the economy and, of course, his own party which is currently in shambles.
As for Dr Mahathir, he does not have much choice but to play from outside the field while waiting for the court decision on his appeal over his Bersatu membership.
PH has Anwar but the coalition doesn’t have enough numbers to force Muhyiddin to step down.
It also does not want a snap election because it knows it could be in for a drubbing given its internal strife and punishment from Malaysians at large who see it as failing to deliver its manifesto promises.
Thus, the likely scenario after the July Parliament sitting will be that the ruling alliance of Bersatu, PAS and Barisan Naional (BN) with Umno as its backbone will continue to govern until its term ends in 2023.
In the meantime, PH needs to see beyond Dr Mahathir and Anwar and promote a younger set of leaders to attract a broader voter base and stay relevant.
