Amid 1MDB troubles, opposition eyes Putrajaya win with ‘Malay economic tsunami’

KUALA LUMPUR, July 10 — As allegations over 1Malaysia Development Bhd (1MDB) weigh hard on the ruling Barisan Nasional (BN), a strategist for the federal opposition is already laying out the roadmap for a victory in the next general election.

DAP’s Liew Chin Tong said today that the opposition can ride a “Malay economic tsunami” to take over the federal government with just 38 marginal seats in Peninsular Malaysia if a mere 6 per cent of voters swing away from BN.

“In the Malay economic tsunami that is to come, Umno will be buried in these mixed, semi-urban constituencies,” the DAP national political education director said in his analysis titled “The Peninsula dominoes”.

“Focusing on the middle ground with strong leadership, clarity in policy and a convincing message to unite all ethnic groups while riding on the wave of a brewing Malay revolt could just tilt the balance,” the Kluang MP said, attributing the antipathy among Malay voters to “economic hardships” imposed by the ruling government.

Liew said the battle for the 14th general election due in three years’ time would be in peninsular Malaysia, where 73 of BN’s Election 2013 haul of 88 seats are located.

Out of these 73 seats won by BN, 38 were won with less than 10 per cent margin.  Out of the 38 BN marginal seats, 27 of them were won with less than 6 per cent margin, while the remaining 12 were won with between 6 per cent and10 per cent margin.

“Indeed a 6 per cent uniform swing would wipe out 27 marginal seats and send Barisan Nasional to the opposition bench,” the DAP Johor chief said.

He noted that Umno had kept its “safe seat” Rompin in a by-election this May but with a vote share falling by 6 per cent, saying that Umno would lose the 27 seats if the by-election result is used to measure the potential swing in Malay voter support to the opposition.

According to Liew, the 38 marginal seats that the opposition has a chance of grabbing away from BN are largely mixed seats (22) with less than 70 per cent Malay voters, while the remaining 16 have more than 70 per cent Malay voters.

“If one looks at the states of which the marginal seats are from, apart from the three Parti Keadilan Rakyat seats in Kelantan, which were allegedly lost due to sabotage by local PAS branches, and the seven seats from Kedah, there rest are essentially West Coast Peninsula, semi-urban, multiethnic seats, most of them with a small Malay majority in ethnic composition,” he said.

In Election 2013, BN failed to regain a two-third majority as it won only 133 of the 222 federal seats, while Pakatan Rakyat took 89 seats. A win of 112 seats is needed for a simple majority.

Liew is the mastermind behind a Pakatan Rakyat gamble in Umno stronghold state Johor in Election 2013 that successfully ousted several BN stalwarts, with a haul of five out of 26 federal seats there.

BN is embroiled in controversy over claims Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak received US$700 million (RM2.6 billion) from 1MDB.

Umno is also facing a crisis due to Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s bid to remove Najib as prime minister over 1MDB and other scandals.

But the federal opposition also has its own troubles after Pakatan Rakyat was declared dead recently while leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim was sentenced to five years’ jail.

DAP has in the past few years sought to overcome its image as a Chinese-centric party with the influx of new Malay members such as national laureate Datuk A. Samad Said.

DAP ally PAS has yet to come out with a final decision on splitting with it, while PAS progressives have set up a new movement that could well be part of the new opposition line-up.