MARCH 30 — The world must now resist the illusion that military escalation alone can force Iran to capitulate. That assumption is dangerously simplistic.

Khallqrg lll Island remains central because it handles about 90 per cent of Iran’s oil exports, while the Strait of Hormuz still carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas

Any attempt to seize islands, deploy ground troops, or impose control by force risks producing consequences far beyond the battlefield.

First, diplomacy is necessary because the economic stakes are global.

Barclays has warned that a prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could remove 13 to 14 million barrels per day from world supply. 

That is not a regional inconvenience. It is a systemic shock to energy markets, inflation, transport, fertilizer production, and food prices me. 

Second, diplomacy is vital because seizing Kharg Island would not guarantee strategic success. 

Reuters reports that even if the island could be taken with a limited number of troops, those troops would be highly exposed to drone attacks, missile strikes, mines, and logistical vulnerability. A tactical gain could quickly become a strategic trap. 

Third, diplomacy matters because the Strait of Hormuz cannot be “managed” like a simple gate that is opened and closed at will. 

Even partial disruption, selective passage, higher insurance premiums, rerouting, and maritime uncertainty can inflict severe economic pain. 

Iran has already signalled that only “non-hostile” ships may pass under certain conditions, showing how easily commercial navigation can become politicised. 

Fourth, diplomacy is necessary because the crisis is already widening into a humanitarian one. 

The United Nations has warned that prolonged disruption through Hormuz is not just about oil and gas. 

It also threatens fertiliser flows during a key agricultural season, raising the risk of food insecurity for vulnerable populations far from the Gulf itself.

Fifth, diplomacy is the only realistic path because even Washington’s own public messaging is mixed. 

On March 27, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the United States could achieve its objectives without ground troops, even as other reports pointed to contingency planning and Marine deployments. 

That ambiguity alone should push the international community toward negotiation before miscalculation takes over. 

Sixth, diplomacy is needed because a negotiated exit is already being explored.

Pakistan has hosted high-level talks involving regional powers including Turkey, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia, with reopening Hormuz as a central agenda item. 

The very existence of these talks shows that the region understands what some military planners still underestimate: there is no durable military solution to an energy chokepoint crisis of this scale. 

Seventh, diplomacy is essential because the United Nations is already trying to build mechanisms to protect trade through Hormuz. 

The creation of a UN task force modeled partly on earlier maritime and humanitarian arrangements shows that the world is searching for collective management, not perpetual escalation. That instinct is correct. 

Eighth, diplomacy is necessary because time is not on the side of the world economy. 

Reuters has reported that Brent crude was already above US$100 (RM392) per barrel in recent days, and continued disruption could push prices higher still. Once energy shocks spill into shipping, fertiliser, and food, the damage does not stop when the shooting stops. The aftershocks persist. 

Ninth, diplomacy is required because the crisis is producing no clean winners. Iran’s oil system has shown surprising resilience despite strikes, while outside powers remain unable to impose full stability on the Strait. 

That means the present trajectory is not one of decisive victory, but of accumulating risk, rising costs, and expanding uncertainty. 

Tenth, diplomacy is indispensable because the alternative is a world economy held hostage by escalation, retaliation, and strategic pride. 

The UN secretary-general has already appointed a personal envoy for the war, underscoring the urgency of de-escalation. 

The issue now is not whether diplomacy is idealistic. It is whether the world is wise enough to recognise that diplomacy is the last barrier against a wider energy, food, and financial crisis. 

The central lesson is clear. From Kharg Island to the surrounding islands of the Strait of Hormuz, the temptation to dominate by force may appear strong. 

Yet the closer the world moves toward ground operations and maritime coercion, the greater the danger that events spiral beyond anyone’s control.

Diplomacy is not weakness here. It is the only instrument capable of preventing a regional war from becoming a global economic disaster.

* Phar Kim Beng, PhD is the Professor of Asean Studies at International Islamic University of Malaysia and Director of Institute of International and Asean Studies (IINTAS).

** This is the personal opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of Malay Mail.