SEPTEMBER 12 — The European Union’s Strategic Foresight Report 2025 declares that the rules-based global order, painstakingly built after World War II, is collapsing. Multilateralism is under siege, supply chains are being weaponised, and dependencies on rival powers are creating strategic vulnerabilities. For Europe, this signals the end of certainty. If anything, it is the rise of a group of strong leaders prone to their own versions of crow bar diplomacy. Whether it is President Donald of the United States or President Vladimir Putin of Russia, invariably, Chairman Kim Jong-un of North Korea, the dawn of the strong men has arrived. With that their whims have supplanted the moral and strategic necessity of a multilateral world order. 

For Asia, particularly South-east Asia, the consequences are even starker — made all the more urgent by the fact that Donald J. Trump is once again the President of the United States who loves tariffs; a President in China who is compelled to push back; in turn a bevy of leaders such as Prime Minister Narendra Modhi who do not see why East or South Asia has to wait in line to wait for the full manifestations of MAGA or Made in China when there can be a Made in India plan in the offing too. The Global South is not going to roll over and play dead. Hence the likes of Brics, indeed, GCC and Asean and China Economic Summits have fostered their own networks, no matter how incomplete and imperfect. The Global South is trying not to allow a fractured rules-based order to cut deep into their own regional organisations and arrangement.

The Trump factor

At any rate, Trump’s return to power underscores the very dynamics the EU fears. The promotion of a right-wing ideology of unalloyed nationalism that the EU has tried to suppress by promoting the expansion of Nato and EU membership only to see these two initiatives triggering the kind of whiplash effects that have never been seen since World War I, for that matter, World War II.

In turn, Trump’s unapologetic embrace of unilateralism — through tariffs, threats to alliances, and economic nationalism — embodies the erosion of the rules-based order, that has invited the rebuke of all the leaders in Brics. The fact that the Gaza massacre can continue indefinitely is a sign of the worst of times, marked by a stinging sense of global helplessness.

Invariably, when the leader of the world’s largest economy discards multilateral mechanisms as shackles, the world has no choice but to adapt to unpredictability. China has responded to the anaemic post Pandemic recovery by focussing on more and more exports. Only to buy more food and grains from Brazil in particular to offset the agricultural war with the US. 

Asia already knows the hard lesson of MAGA. Trump’s “America First” tariffs have disrupted global trade flows, often hitting allies harder than adversaries. 

Under Trump, the rules-based order is not simply fraying — it is being actively dismantled through the reactions of other strong men who won’t yield easily to his excesses. But how has EU come to see things in such a cynical manner?

Europe’s dependence, Asia’s parallels

First and foremost, the EU admits its reliance on the US for digital and financial services and on China for critical raw materials. This double bind is dangerous, leaving EU vulnerable to coercion. 

East Asia, too, lives in such a bind. Asean economies are tethered to US markets while relying heavily on Chinese capital and exports. Both powers have shown willingness to privilege their own economy above and ahead the others. 

Second, the EU report notes that export restrictions on raw materials have quintupled since 2023. Again, a death knell on the rules-based order. Whether the restrictions come in the form of stopping semiconductors to flow freely, with which EU itself is as responsible for this as the US, the policy driver seems to be to contain China’s arrival and ascend as a colossal tech driven power determined not to buckle under any pressures. 

In turn, China has restricted rare earth exports and slowed down any technology transfer just as the US, under Trump, has wielded tariffs against both friends and rivals.  For Asean, the message is clear: dependency is liability. Co-dependency on the two poles is equally risk-frauged when US and China are refusing to blink first.

Weaponisation without borders

The EU further warns that everything from trade to migration, humanitarian aid to space, can be weaponised. 

This is not theory — it is Asia’s daily reality.

Trump, Putin and Modhi all at logger heads, magnify this environment. By treating trade deficits as acts of aggression, Trump reduces economic engagement to a zero-sum battlefield. By privileging bilateral deals over multilateral frameworks, Trump leaves smaller states exposed to coercion. All of which have compelled leaders such as Putin of Russia, Xi of China and Modhi of India, indeed, Chairman Kim of North Korea, to work with and through their personal connections.

Asean in the eye of the storm

As Asean Chair in 2025, Malaysia finds itself in such a crucible. In October, Kuala Lumpur will host the East Asia Summit, where Trump, Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, and Brics leaders are set to gather. Each will present their own version of “order” — and each will expect Asean to acquiesce.

The EU’s foresight report makes plain that there will be no return to the old multilateral comfort zone. Asean must therefore craft a role not as bystander but as convenor. The Kuala Lumpur Vision 2045 can serve as the foundation for an Asian rules-based framework — one that secures autonomy against external coercion while preserving dialogue with all major powers.

Malaysia’s stakes

For Malaysia, the stakes are immediate. Its National Semiconductor Strategy, vital for building a high-value economy, depends on securing access to critical materials and markets. Trump’s tariff policies and China’s export restrictions put that strategy at risk. If the EU fears being strangled by dependencies, Malaysia faces the same danger.

Resilience is no longer an economic buzzword but a strategic necessity. Malaysia must diversify supply chains, deepen regional cooperation, and seek pragmatic coalitions with partners ranging from Japan to the Gulf states.

Beyond nostalgia

The EU’s report makes clear that nostalgia for the post-war rules-based order is futile. The task of Asean, no matter how weak, is to build new rules, grounded in equity and mutual respect, not imposed hierarchies. 

For Asean, this means upgrading mechanisms of mediation and crisis prevention, ensuring that the region remains a platform for dialogue rather than a pawn in great-power rivalry.

Trump’s presidency accelerates the collapse of the old order, but it also compels Asia to mature. Asean cannot wait for Europe or the US to fix the system; it must design one of its own, resilient against coercion and adaptable to turbulence.

The rules-based order may be dying. But order itself is not dead — unless Asean fails to seize this moment.

* Phar Kim Beng, PhD, is the Professor of Asean Studies and Director of the Institute of International and Asean Studies (IINTAS) at the International Islamic University of Malaysia.

** This is the personal opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of Malay Mail.