KOTA KINABALU, Oct 26 — The 17th Sabah state election (PRN17) is shaping up to be one of the most crowded and unpredictable contests in the state’s history, with at least five-cornered fights expected across all 73 seats.

At least five blocs have pledged to contest all seats, but in a state where politics is often compared to a chess game, many more players and would-be kingmakers are likely to join the fray.

Five major blocs

The Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS)-Pakatan Harapan (PH) alliance, the state’s largest bloc with nine component parties, plans to contest all 73 seats — though overlaps and “friendly fights” are expected.

Parti Warisan, led by Datuk Seri Mohd Shafie Apdal, and the new Gabungan Bersatu Sabah pact led by Parti Solidariti Tanah Airku (STAR) president Datuk Seri Jeffrey Kitingan, have both announced they will field candidates statewide.

Newcomers Parti Impian Sabah (PIS) and Parti Perjuangan Rakyat (PR) have also pledged to contest all 73 seats, while Barisan Nasional and Parti Kesejahteraan Demokratik Masyarakat (KDM) have said they are aiming for candidates in 48 and 38 seats respectively.

Wildcards include Perikatan Nasional’s Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu) and a growing movement of independents led by Kudat MP Datuk Verdon Bahanda, whom critics say enjoy strong grassroots support.

PN is expected to contest about 36 seats, including PAS, which has already announced plans for 12.

Sarawak-based Parti Bangsa Malaysia (PBM) and Parti Bumi Kenyalang (PBK) are also eyeing several seats, while Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s Pejuang has announced it will contest three.

Despite the chaos, analysts say only a handful of parties — GRS-PH, Warisan, BN-PH, STAR’s local alliance, and KDM — are serious contenders for a significant number of seats.

When too many contenders spoil the race

Observers say the crowded field often attracts political opportunists or “pok silap”, a local slang for those who try to profit from confusion — either by being “bought” to withdraw or to force negotiation leverage.

“It may be a ‘setup’ or a ‘sponsored’ move by someone. Some are very optimistic and confident they can win. Lastly, some just take it as their ‘training ground’. Winning is a bonus, losing is an experience,” said Universiti Teknologi Mara (UiTM) lecturer Tony Paridi Bagang.

Political analysts like Bagang believe the split-vote scenario would usually benefit the incumbent, or GRS in this case.

But this is not always the case. 

In the 2022 general election, the Gabungan Rakyat Sabah-Barisan Nasional alliance, then the opposition, won at least nine seats due to split votes by their opponents the incumbent Warisan Plus who could not work out a pact with PH after the dissolution.

Based on the number of votes, clashes between Warisan and PH in six seats had given the GRS-BN the advantage to take the seat amidst some tight races while Parti Kesejahteraan Demokratik Masyarakat had played a significant role in three seats.

Veteran players know that splitting votes is a major power play and can cost you a seat. However small or unfamiliar a party or individual might be, they are not always inconsequential and can determine outcomes.

Seats could also be won on the thinnest of margins, for example in the 2020 state election, Parti Warisan Sabah’s Rina Jainal won in a seven-corned contest with a razor-thin majority of 10 votes.

The five other candidates lost their respective deposits, with the four of them garnering between 21 to 80 votes.

The other close call was BN’s Yakub Khan who won the Karambunai state seat with slim majority of 16 votes.

Seats to watch

A nine-cornered fight is shaping up in Tamparuli, where GRS’ Datuk Jahid Jahim — Sabah’s Rural Development Minister — is expected to defend his seat against challengers from PH’s UPKO, BN’s PBRS, KDM, Warisan, PN, PIS, Pejuang, STAR, and Parti Gemilang Anak Sabah (GAS).

Other closely watched seats include Inanam, Tanjung Kapor, Tanjung Aru, Darau, Melalap, and Api Api.

As one observer put it, politics in Sabah is like a game of chess — where victory often goes not just to the strongest, but to the smartest strategist with the best timing for every move and exit.