YANGON, Nov 15 — Myanmar faces a pivotal week as neighbouring nations weigh the future of post-coup relations, while the United Nations’ top court threatens a verdict of genocide over its dark past.

The International Court of Justice (ICJ) is scheduled on Thursday to rule whether Myanmar committed genocide against its marginalised Muslim Rohingya minority.

The case looms over a three-day meeting of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) due to debate its policy freezing Myanmar out of summits since a 2021 putsch.

Rohingya activists say the pending judgement should haunt the minds of Asean leaders when they meet in the Philippines starting Sunday.

“We are waiting to see what the outcome will be on that day, the judgement for everything we have been experiencing for generations,” said a 25-year-old Yangon-based Rohingya activist who requested anonymity for security reasons.

“If they welcome people who lack basic humanity and destroyed our lives, our futures and our possessions, we will be very let down,” he added.

Man in question

The UN court case and Asean’s diplomatic dilemma are separate issues on paper. But both converge on one man: Min Aung Hlaing.

The 11-nation Asean bloc has shunned Myanmar leaders from summits since his military coup turfed out the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi and sparked civil war.

The Hague case dates back to 2017, when Myanmar is accused of breaching the United Nations Genocide Convention by brutalising the Rohingya.

The judgement due Thursday will weigh state culpability, not individual guilt.

But Min Aung Hlaing led the military as it spearheaded the mass killings, rape and arson targeting the Rohingya and driving nearly 750,000 into Bangladesh as refugees.

This April, he was installed as president after elections rejected by democracy watchdogs, and is waging a charm offensive seeking acceptance in the diplomatic fold.

“If the ICJ finds that Myanmar committed genocide, it would seriously weaken Min Aung Hlaing’s efforts,” said Wai Yan Phyo Naing, visiting scholar at Taiwan’s Academia Sinica.

“Any public association with him could create political and reputational risks, especially for governments that claim to support human rights and international law.”

Signs of support

But Myanmar has already secured signals of support to return to Asean.

As civilian president, Min Aung Hlaing has had red-carpet welcomes in bloc members Thailand, Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam.

Even Muslim-majority Malaysia hosted him last month, albeit to expedite the return of thousands of Myanmar migrants as a wave of prejudice towards Rohingya refugees swept the nation.

Rights groups expressed alarm about the fate of those returned, but that did not prevent Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim promising “Malaysia will do whatever is possible” to smooth Myanmar’s normalisation in Asean.

Richard Horsey, senior Asia adviser at the International Crisis Group, said the ICJ ruling may have little impact on Min Aung Hlaing’s momentum.

“Governments willing to host him are unlikely to change course over a ruling addressed to the Myanmar state, which places no legal restriction on him personally,” he said.

“It may make some members more cautious about being seen to move quickly, but I doubt it will stop the drift towards normalisation.”

Diplomatic drift

Some analysts argue that a finding Myanmar committed genocide may actually embolden Min Aung Hlaing, confirming he can rub shoulders with world leaders regardless.

It may also stoke division between Asean nations arguing he should be ostracised and those favouring engagement to coax Myanmar towards a different future.

Post-coup Myanmar has been represented by senior civil servants at Asean summits, an arrangement which will remain in place for the Manila meeting.

The bloc’s rotating chair will at the end of this year pass from the Philippines to Singapore, a city-state analysts say opposes normalising Myanmar ties.

But in 2028, it will be the turn of Thailand, which shares a long border with Myanmar and is leading the charge for closer relations.

Thai Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow said Thursday he did not forsee the ICJ ruling would disrupt the process of “calibrated re-engagement”.

“Asean is unlikely to fully embrace Min Aung Hlaing at a summit level soon,” said independent Myanmar analyst David Mathieson.

“But it’s only a matter of time.” — AFP