APRIL 27 — What is success for Anwar Ibrahim when Kelantan, Terengganu, Kedah, Penang, Selangor and Negeri Sembilan hold elections in less than three months?
In politics, perception tops actual results.
This is why the outcomes have to be weighted to what constitutes success for Pakatan-BN in their first large effort to campaign together.
The previous Pakatan Harapan government learnt it the hard way.
Mahathir Mohamad resigned as prime minister on February 24, 2020 but the crumble began a year before with the Semenyih state by-election (March 2, 2019) when Barisan Nasional’s (BN) Zakaria Hanafi won.
It forced Pakatan down a rabbit hole of perception.
Pakatan lost Malay support because it lost one election. But one defeat becomes another and then another.
Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim would like to avoid a similar streak and these state elections are set to test him.
He already moved the usual National Raya Open House celebrations split among Perikatan Nasional (PN) states of Kelantan, Terengganu and Kedah. Battle has commenced, only the bugle has not been sounded.
It will, soon.
So, the column appraises the situation and sets a passing mark for Pakatan-BN and Anwar for all six states.
The analysis assumes the Pakatan-BN marriage does not collapse before, factors coalition dynamics and results in 2018 state elections and the 2022 parliamentary election results.
Also, Malaysia has had goofy politics of late, meaning large vote swings caused by voters’ no-show or support switch.
For instance, Umno-BN won Melaka comfortably in November 2021 only to not win any of Melaka’s six parliamentary seats a year later. In the second example, Johor voters gave BN 40 of its 56 seats in March 2022, only to turn the game on its head eight months later and pass only nine of the 26 parliamentary seats to BN.
Caution is advised. Voters are increasingly fickle.
Kelantan: Koce Kelate folks travel well
2018 score: Total 45 seats. PAS-PN 37, BN 8
Last November, PN won all the seats in Kelantan using the PAS logo. Critically, they won all but one of the seats with at least 50 per cent of votes cast (absolute majority).
Even if Pakatan and BN votes transfer seamlessly either way, it is a tall order to break PAS’ domination.
Only the three seats of the Gua Musang Parliamentary, Nenggiri, Paloh and Galas offer a chance as Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah lost only by 163 votes in 2022, and the Pakatan candidate raked in over 4,000 votes.
Unless Kelantanese voters changed overnight or fewer outstation voters return (which is less likely since Penang, Selangor and Negeri Sembilan will be observing holidays for their own state elections on the same day), it is likely grim for Pakatan-BN.
Further, the sacking of Annuar Musa earlier this year by Umno threatens seats like Kok Lanas in Ketereh, and the desertion of Mustapa Mohamed in 2018 to Bersatu renders the three seats in Jeli — Bukit Bunga, Air Lanas and Kuala Balah — doubtful for BN to defend.
Despite all the negative news, BN only needs to meet or exceed expectations.
If Pakatan-BN manage to scrape past five seats, it’s not a disaster. Anything above 10 and PN worries. If Pakatan-BN manage 12-13, it would be a clear success.
Passing mark: five
Terengganu: Take a walk along Rusila
2018 score: Total 32 seats. PAS 22, Umno 10
While Terengganu has changed hands constantly between PAS and Umno-BN over the last 25 years — 10 green years — the parliamentary seat results from November was ominous for BN.
PAS won all eight seats with absolute majorities. In fact, they collected at least 58 per cent of the popular vote in every contest.
Although BN took 10 from the 32 seats in 2018, all of them are vulnerable based on the general election last November.
Six of the BN wins were in the parliamentary seats of Besut and Setiu (offered eight in total), but PAS won both those seats with 58 per cent and 60 per cent in November.
If Pakatan-BN win five or less seats in the upcoming state elections, they’ve failed.
Passing mark: five
Kedah: What was Mahathir-land before
2018 score: Total 36 seats. 18 Pakatan, 15 PAS, 3 Umno
The only major battlefield. A major test for both coalitions.
PAS ran it 2008-2013 under the auspices of Pakatan, lost it by a whisker despite going solo in 2018, and regained it in 2020 after a reorganisation of affiliations following the rise of PN.
Pakatan of the 2018 vintage took half of the assembly’s 36, albeit during Mahathir’s reign at Bersatu.
However, the PN blitzkrieg was unprecedented last year. It was brutal.
They collected 14 of 15 parliamentary seats. Only Dewan Rakyat Speaker Johari Abdul’s son Taufiq Johari kept the Pakatan flag flying in Sungai Petani.
In that race Taufiq was only a thousand plus votes ahead of PN’s Robert Ling, an ex-PKR leader.
Assemblyman Ling (Sidam) hopped out in 2020 to help PN form a majority in the state assembly. What is striking is the transfer of support to him in the Sungai Petani (49,645 votes) race despite his controversial PKR exit.
Home Minister Saifuddin Nasution was defeated at Kulim Bandar Baharu and even when Pakatan and BN belatedly ganged up for the postponed Padang Serai contest, Pakatan lost the thrice-held seat and PN won comfortably.
However, expectations will not be low and if Pakatan-BN fail to clinch more than a third of the seats, they’d be judged to have dropped the ball.
Seats like Derga, Kota Darul Aman, Gurun, Bukit Selambau, Bakar Arang, Lunas and Kulim are expected to be the base for Pakatan to build a total, while they hope BN can pull some weight in what was their fortress not too long ago.
There is the other element of the PM being a northerner and therefore campaigning hard in the state.
Passing mark: 12. 19 is distinction, it is also the threshold to run the state.
Penang: On the move without Gerakan
2018 score: Total 40 seats. Pakatan 37, Umno 2, PN 1
The opposite of Kelantan. In that Pakatan-BN needs to win big to reassure all is well.
If PN wins more than seven of the 40 assembly seats, the new coalition qualifies as a legitimate threat.
Too demanding of Pakatan-BN?
Let’s count.
Pakatan is not expected to drop any of the 19 seats on the island, as PN relies on Gerakan to move votes.
It is on Perai the battle-lines are drawn. PN’s wins in Permatang Pauh, Kepala Batas and Tasek Gelugor last November raises the spectre that the nine state seats under them are vulnerable (PAS only won one of them, Penaga in 2018).
Anwar would see the three in his old parliamentary seat, Seberang Jaya, Permatang Pasir and Penanti as tests of his appeal in his home state.
Penang falling to PN is inconceivable but if they lose more than 10, the whispers of a dark blue wave grow louder.
Passing mark: 30
Selangor: Where futures are made
2018 score: Pakatan 51, BN 4, PAS 1
If PN takes over Selangor it would mark the start of the end of the Anwar federal administration.
After picking up six of the 22 parliamentary seats last November, PN are hungry for more.
Though when analysed, the PN gains were in former BN northern strongholds; Tanjong Karang, Sabak Bernam, Sungai Besar and Hulu Selangor, combined with Klang zones; Kapar and Kuala Langat because they were led by state PAS veterans and former state excos Halimah Ali and Ahmad Yunus Hairi.
To expect those results to add seats from the urban central or rest of Klang is premature.
Selangor Pakatan has increased its assembly seats from election to election since 2008 and now it cooperates with BN.
Menteri Besar Amirudin Shari showed his mettle to defeat his own mentor and former MB Azmin Ali in Gombak, and can ride on a quietly successful period in office.
There are 15 state seats under the six parliamentary seats PN won, with PN capable of winning up to seven which includes Selat Kelang, Sijangkang, Meru and Sabak.
All news about the richest state in the country has the ability to shift political tectonic plates across the federation. Which is why it is the most awaited result.
Passing mark: 42
Negeri Sembilan: Not even close to nine for PN
2018 score: Total 36 seats.Pakatan 20, BN 16
The state is peculiar in that Pakatan and Umno dominate it, both at the last state election in 2018 (Pakatan) and general election 2022 (BN) with no present MP or assemblyman from PN, and they now work together.
In fact, in the eight parliamentary seats, PN candidates did not perform better than third place to both Pakatan and BN, including Kuala Pilah’s incumbent Eddin Syazlee Shith.
Both Pakatan and BN can only under-perform and any gain from PN is an over-achievement.
If PN, unlikely as it is, shines against the Pakatan-BN tandem then it would mean there has been a sizeable shift of votes from BN to PN.
Passing mark: 30
Countdown on
If Pakatan-BN exceeds expectations it can be the foundation for the formalisation of the unity secretariat and a period of blackout for PN — PAS sticks to religious lines with zero policy ideas and Bersatu clambers around for an identity issue or failure.
However, if the results are triumphant for PN and they bag four of the six states, then it is proof the dark blue wave is real and is ready to paint more parts of the peninsula.
The race and religion debates multiply and all missteps are flogged and parodied on social media.
The whole tone of the Anwar administration for the remaining four years or so will be shaped by the state elections. The earliest state election after these would be Sabah in 2025.
It is difficult to avert our eyes from what is set to transpire in the weeks to come.
* This is the personal opinion of the columnist.
