NEW YORK, April 4 — JPMorgan has raised the risk of a global recession to 60 per cent following the Trump administration’s announcement of sweeping tariffs on US trading partners.
According to Bloomberg, Bruce Kasman, the bank’s chief economist, warned that the tariffs represent the largest tax hike on American households and businesses since 1968.
“The effect of this tax hike is likely to be magnified — through retaliation, a slide in US. business sentiment, and supply chain disruptions,” Kasman wrote in a note titled, “There will be blood.”
Several Wall Street firms echoed similar concerns, with some making a US recession their base case as they assess the economic impact of US President Donald Trump’s so-called “Liberation Day” tariffs.
Malaysia was assessed a 24-per cent “reciprocal” tariff, which appeared to be nothing more than half the country’s trade surplus with the US expressed in percentage terms.
The announcement sent financial markets tumbling, with the S&P 500 losing over US$2.4 trillion (RM10 trillion) and suffering its worst decline since 2020.
Trump, speaking aboard Air Force One, said he was open to reducing tariffs if trading partners made a “phenomenal” offer.
Kasman noted that while JPMorgan is not immediately adjusting its forecasts, the full implementation of these tariffs would be a major economic shock.
He added that if the policies remain in place, they are likely to push the US and possibly the global economy into recession this year.
