LONDON, Aug 1 — Sterling sank to a 30-month low today, pressured by a stronger dollar and renewed worries that Britain could crash out of the European Union on October 31 without a trade agreement in place.
The pound plunged to a low of US$1.2101 (RM5.01) overnight in Asia, its lowest since January 2017, after the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates but didn’t sound as dovish as many expected. In early European trading, the currency was last down 0.3 per cent at US$1.2122.
Against the euro, sterling was little changed at 91.100 pence.
The pound lost more than four per cent of its value in July, its worst month since October 2016, after new Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s vow to leave the EU on October 31 whether or not a transition deal can be agreed with Brussels. This sparked panic among investors that Britain was on course for a disorderly divorce.
“Sterling remains vulnerable to a further escalation in Brexit tensions and we anticipate the market will likely discount higher risks of a ‘no deal’ outcome in the weeks ahead,” said Roger Hallam, Currency Chief Investment Officer at JP Morgan Asset Management.
Hallam also said it expected the Bank of England, which is holding its monetary policy meeting today, to sound more dovish, “eroding interest rate support for sterling”.
“The UK’s significant current account deficit (4.4 per cent of GDP) also makes the UK particularly vulnerable to a deterioration in Brexit sentiment,” he said in emailed comments.
The BoE will give its rate decision at 1100 GMT, and is expected to keep rates on hold but strike a more dovish tone as it seeks to ease concerns about the potential economic hit by a disruptive break from the EU.
Money markets are now pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut by the BoE before early 2020, although policymakers may push back against expectations for lower rates in the coming months.
Also weighing on sterling are signs of an economic slowdown in the British economy. A Purchasing Managers’ Index survey for the manufacturing sector, due at 0830 GMT, is expected to show a reading of 47.7 for the month of July, below the 48 reading in June, well into contraction.
Kit Juckes, currencies analyst at Societe Generale, said that amid “the on-going political carnage as Boris Johnson lays out his Brexit plans and the weakness of the economy, there’s nothing to like about the pound.” — Reuters
