KUALA LUMPUR, Aug 11 — A study by independent pollster Ilham Centre revealed that Umno is struggling to attract votes from its own supporters in the state elections.
The think tank said that the study on Barisan Nasional (BN) voters’ behaviour showed that there was a clear rejection from Umno grassroots and “fence sitter” voters who had previously voted for the coalition and the Malay nationalist party.
“Generally, Umno grassroots members expressed their dissatisfaction over party president Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, which would discourage them from voting for the coalition again.
“Most of them are quite passive on the matter and decided to take wait-and-see approach,” said Ilham Centre.
The study also said that Umno members, including the machinery, admitted that it is still difficult for them to accept Pakatan Harapan (PH) due to DAP, which is seen as extremist and anti-Malay, and also partly because of Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim.
“Due to these factors, Umno members might likely shift their votes to Perikatan Nasional (PN) as they have a history of working together under Muafakat Nasional (MN).
“This shows the formation of MN benefited PAS and PN as a whole,” it said.
From a psychological point of view, Ilham Centre said that Umno members would be afraid of being mocked by PAS for working with DAP-PH, which they have rejected all this while.
It also said that the selection of candidates that is not in line with the views of party divisions is another problem for Umno.
“In such a situation, there is a high chance that Umno members will protest silently, such as has been widely seen in Kelantan and Terengganu.
“Based on our data gathering, about 27 to 58 per cent of Umno voters from GE15 will switch to vote for PN in the state elections tomorrow,” said Ilham Centre.
However, it said that the situation can be avoided if Umno leaders met the grassroots and explained their decision to work with DAP and Anwar.
Ilham Centre said the Malay-Islam wave from GE15 is seen as continuing.
“In the previous GE, PN obtained 52 per cent of Malay votes followed by BN (32 per cent) and PH (15 per cent).
“With the situation not expected to change and Umno internal politics still raging as well as the matter of moderate acceptance of the unity government among the Malays, PN is expected to continue dominating the support of this group of people,” it said.
Despite the cooperation of PH-Umno reducing the split of Malay votes compared to the general election, Ilham Centre said this still won’t help the unity government as Umno had lost all Malay majority parliamentary seats in Selangor, Penang, Kelantan, Kedah and Terengganu in the previous GE.
The study, which was conducted from July 28 to August 8, involved a total of 2,304 respondents, with 48 respondents involved in an in-depth interview that included groups of young people, local leaders and women.
Ilham Centre also said that the data from face-to-face were collected by enumerators using surveys and semi-structured interview protocols.
“The margin of error in this survey is 2 per cent with a confidence level of 95 per cent.
“The quantitative and qualitative data collection process covers all six states with a stratified random sampling method covering all age levels, ethnicities, household groups, education levels, occupations and different localities.
“The research data was analysed quantitatively and qualitatively thematically,” said Ilham Centre.
