GEORGE TOWN, July 30 ― Three-way contest will be inevitable if Penang heads to the polls this year, and this will likely result in greater racial polarisation along urban and rural lines, political analysts forecast.

The ruling DAP and PKR can rest easy in urban seats where the mixed ethnic demography will likely continue to provide strong support; however, their position is less secure in the predominantly Malay rural constituencies where PKR will have to scramble for votes with PAS ― with whom it is still friends ― and Umno.

“PKR won all the seats in Penang based on one-to-one fights, so if there is a split three-way fight, PKR will pay the price,” political scientist James Chin told Malay Mail Online in an interview this week.

The University of Tasmania’s Asia Institute director suspects that PAS is working surreptitiously with Umno to kill off Parti Amanah Negara (Amanah), splinter party and the third partner in the Pakatan Harapan pact, if snap polls are called in Penang, and said PKR will be “collateral damage”.

Prof Datuk Wira Dr Mohamed Mustafa Ishak also believes that Barisan Nasional (BN) will take advantage of the snap polls and that it will be a tough competition for PKR.

“BN wants to regain back the state seats it has lost before. PKR knows this and that is why they are reluctant for the snap polls.

“DAP can win back all their seats. PKR can win back theirs in urban areas, but it will be difficult in rural areas,” the National Council of Professors’ Political, Security and International Affairs Council head said.

Associate Professor Dr Mohd Azizuddin Mohd Sani predicted the Pakatan Harapan alliance will continue to rule Penang if polls are called this year, but it will suffer a reduced majority.

“They might lose a few seats, especially in Malay dominant areas. This is the reason why PKR is not ready for it,” the Universiti Utara Malaysia College of Law, Government & International Studies senior lecturer said.

He was unsure which seats PKR may lose, but pointed to Seberang Jaya as a weak seat that may fall to BN. The N10 state constituency, together with Permatang Pasir and Penanti, form the greater parliamentary constituency of Permatang Pauh whose elected representative is PKR president and federal Opposition Leader Datuk Seri Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail.

“They may have a solid win in Permatang Pauh, but they could lose Seberang Jaya and other seats that have predominantly Malay voters,” Mohd Azizuddin said.

Seberang Jaya was previously a BN seat before PKR wrested it in 2013 with a 2,459 vote majority. The constituency has a voter breakdown of 64 per cent Malays, 23 per cent Chinese and 12 per cent Indians.

“Most of DAP’s seats are in non-Malay areas so they are rather secure and will be able to retain their seats, but if we are talking about Malay areas, there are other sentiments such as religious and racial issues that will have them supporting BN/ Umno,” Mohd Azizuddin added.

He also shared the same view that Malay voters opposed to BN may be divided between PKR and Islamist PAS, which would ultimately benefit Umno in a three-cornered electoral battle.

As an example, he cited the fight for Sungai Acheh seat in Election 2013 that saw PKR and PAS both challenging and failing to defeat BN.

In the three-corner fight for Sungai Acheh, BN’s Datuk Mahmud Zakaria won by an 808-vote majority, polling 6,891 votes against the PKR candidates who garnered 6,083 votes and the PAS challenger who received 690 votes.

Mahmud squared off against PKR’s Dr Azhar Ahamad in Election 2008 ― which first swept PKR, DAP and PAS into power in five states for the first time ― in a straight fight, but won by slim margin of 250 votes.

“Now that PAS is also going to contest and PKR does not want to complicate its relations with PAS, that is why they are reluctant about the state elections,” Mohd Azizuddin said.

PKR currently has 10 state seats in Penang. On the mainland side, PKR holds these seats: Seberang Jaya (N10), Penanti (N12), Machang Bubuk (N14), Bukit Tengah (N17), Bukit Tambun (N18), Sungai Bakap (N20) while on the island, the seats PKR holds are Kebun Bunga (N24), Batu Uban (N35), Pantai Jerejak (N36) and Batu Maung (N37).

Out of the 10 state seats, only four seats are Malay dominant areas, namely Seberang Jaya, Penanti (76 per cent Malays), Sungai Bakap (57 per cent Malays) and Batu Maung (51 per cent Malays).

In Sungai Bakap, PKR’s Maktar Shapee retained the seat with slightly lesser vote majority of 1,805 against BN in 2013 as compared to the 2,076-vote majority in 2008.

Penanti is located within PKR’s stronghold in Permatang Pauh where PKR’s Norlela Ariffin retained the seat with a 2,339-vote majority in 2013 as compared to a 2,219-vote majority in 2008.

Batu Maung, located in the Bayan Baru parliamentary constituency which is also held by PKR, was retained with a high vote majority of 3,390 votes in 2013, an increase from 3,169 vote majority in 2008.

DAP has been pushing for state polls to be held but PKR has remained unconvinced of the necessity for one to be held.

The other ally, Amanah, which does not hold any seats in Penang, has agreed to the proposal.

DAP holds 19 state seats in Penang, PAS one and the remaining 10 are held by BN.ends