For Najib, a leadership crisis dodged with Kuala Besut win, say analysts

KUALA LUMPUR, July 25 — Umno’s Kuala Besut victory has given Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak a breather and the chance to avoid a potential leadership challenge during the party’s October polls, analysts have said.

Rumours of potential threats to his party presidency swirled after several party veterans here blamed Najib for Barisan Nasional’s (BN) poor showing in Election 2013.

When the Kuala Besut seat fell vacant and a by-election was called last month, observers said the prime minister badly needed the victory to cement his position in Umno and contain a possible coup.

“If Umno’s majority is reduced then Umno’s future would be in jeopardy,” Professor Samsul Adabi Mamat, a political analyst with Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, told The Malay Mail Online yesterday, referring to Najib’s leadership.

“This seat is a rural seat. It is a must win for BN,” the analyst added.

After much hype in the run-up to the crucial polls, including the prospect of a hung Terengganu assembly, BN lynchpin Umno retained the Malay-majority seat last night with a thumping victory, even increasing its majority by 158 votes.

At curtain call, BN candidate Tengku Zaihan Che Ku Abdul Rahman emerged the winner in the closely-watched election, edging out PAS’s Azlan Yusof with a 2,592-vote majority, polling 8,288 votes to his contender’s 5,696 votes.

The result means status quo for the state legislature with BN back at pole position, leading the assembly with 17 seats against Pakatan Rakyat’s (PR) 16. PAS is one of the three component parties in PR.

But the victory, though comfortable, had apparently come at a high price.

Polls reform group Bersih 2.0 claimed the BN government poured close to half a billion ringgit in projects or an equivalent of RM19,000 for each voter in the fishing constituency.

Echoing this, PAS said the ruling coalition pledged a total of RM467.12 million during the 12-day campaign, and claimed this was possibly the most ever spent on a by-election.

Opposition politicians and analysts said the record amount of cash spent in the polls showed how desperate Najib needed the win.

“With the kind of money spent in this by-election you can see how important it is to Najib,” Center for Policy Initiatives director Lim Teck Ghee told The Malay Mail Online.

“If the majority had been reduced, we would hear muttering among Umno’s faithful about Najib’s inability to get stronger support. If Najib had lost, his neck is on the chopping block,” he added.

Umno’s victory in Kuala Besut last night came just over two months after the ruling coalition weathered its toughest electoral battle in May.

Despite emerging the victor then, BN was bloodied. It lost nine more seats than what it garnered in Election 2008.

Najib’s vigorous attempt to regain a parliamentary supermajority had failed and in the aftermath, critics began discussing his fate at the looming Umno polls.

Among those who were least happy with Najib’s performance was former Prime Minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad who, at numerous occasions, hinted that Najib should go.

Another is Dr Mahathir’s former propaganda chief Datuk A. Kadir Jasin. In several of his blog postings, he repeatedly accentuated that given BN’s performance, Najib is the worst prime minister and Umno president by far.

But surprisingly, Umno’s top leaders have since expressed support for their current president, even saying they were against any move to challenge his presidency and ultimately, his post as prime minister.

“I think the Kuala Besut results would be an indicator of continued support towards the prime minister for another term and also a form of revitalisation of people’s support towards BN,” commented Samsul.

But to Samsul’s colleague Professor Mohd Agus Yusof, however, the Kuala Besut vote was not a barometer to measure Najib’s future in Umno as the seat had been BN’s stronghold for three terms.

“It is irrelevant. It is not an indicator at all unless BN was contesting in 50-50 seat and he himself is seen leading the campaign there.

“It was an expected outcome so it has no bearing on the Umno leadership,” he told The Malay Mail Online.

Agus argued that Najib had been mostly absent during the 12 day campaign period unlike other critical by-elections in the past and this showed the level of confidence BN had to retain the seat.

All three analysts agreed that the opposition’s defeat there had no significance in light of BN’s entrenched support in the constituency.