JULY 6 — Electoral politics in Johor cannot be understood solely through campaign speeches, party manifestos or the arithmetic of constituencies. There is another arithmetic at work in Johor, one that rarely appears in official statistics but influences political sentiments in profound ways.

It is the ratio of one to five.

For every one Malaysian Chinese working in Singapore, there can be as many as five adults in a household in Johor who depend, directly or indirectly, on that income stream. Parents, grandparents, younger siblings, unemployed relatives, and family members with irregular earnings often rely on remittances or financial assistance sent back from across the Causeway.

This reality is neither glamorous nor easy.

Contrary to common assumptions, very few Malaysians who commute or work in Singapore view such an arrangement as an enviable lifestyle. The early morning departures, long immigration queues, rising transport costs and emotional distance from families impose heavy burdens that accumulate over years.

Many leave home before dawn and return after sunset.

Some spend more waking hours in Singapore than in the homes they continue to finance in Johor.

The arrangement persists not because it is desirable but because it is necessary.

For many Malaysian Chinese households in Johor, the decision to work in Singapore is less an individual choice than a collective family strategy for economic survival and upward mobility.

The wages available in Singapore can be several multiples higher than equivalent jobs in Johor, even after accounting for exchange rates, transportation and living costs.

This income differential has quietly shaped the social structure of Johor for decades.

Entire communities in districts stretching from Johor Bahru to Kulai, from Skudai to Pontian, contain households whose economic fortunes remain tied to employment opportunities in Singapore.

The Malaysian Chinese community in Johor therefore experiences politics differently from many other constituencies in Malaysia.

Questions surrounding wages, housing affordability, educational opportunities, public transport, healthcare access and currency movements are not abstract policy matters. They affect family budgets immediately and directly.

When the value of the Malaysian ringgit weakens, many households benefit from stronger purchasing power generated by Singapore dollar earnings.

When housing prices rise sharply in Johor, however, these same families can feel trapped between increasing costs and limited opportunities for younger generations seeking to establish themselves locally.

This is where political parties, including Pakatan Harapan, need to appreciate the psychology of the diaspora more carefully.

The Malaysian Chinese diaspora is not merely a voting bloc.

It is an economic ecosystem.

Its members are simultaneously workers in Singapore, taxpayers in Malaysia, homeowners in Johor and voters in Malaysian elections.

Many retain strong emotional attachments to Malaysia even while earning their livelihoods elsewhere.

The assumption that they can be mobilised solely through political rhetoric misunderstands their priorities.

Delivering competent governance matters more.

Institutional predictability matters more.

Efficient public services matter more.

Affordable housing matters more.

The ability to create quality jobs in Johor matters most of all.

The success of Johor cannot rest indefinitely on exporting labour across the Causeway, however beneficial the arrangement has been for many families.

A mature economy ultimately seeks to attract talent rather than depend on sending it abroad.

The development of the Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone represents an important opportunity in this regard.

If implemented successfully, it could create higher value employment opportunities that allow more Johoreans to remain closer to their families while continuing to enjoy internationally competitive incomes.

Political parties that understand this aspiration are more likely to succeed electorally.

Those that ignore it risk misunderstanding Johor entirely.

This lesson extends beyond Johor.

Large Malaysian communities reside in Singapore, Australia, the United Kingdom and other parts of the world.

The diaspora contributes financially, intellectually and professionally to Malaysia even while residing abroad.

Their perspectives increasingly shape the opinions of relatives and communities at home.

Politics in the twenty-first century therefore cannot be confined by geographical boundaries.

Diaspora politics is domestic politics.

For Pakatan Harapan, as for every major coalition in Malaysia, electoral success depends less on slogans and more on demonstrating that Malaysia can become a country where citizens choose to stay rather than feel compelled to leave.

The one-to-five ratio is not merely a demographic observation.

It is a reminder of sacrifice.

Behind every worker crossing the Causeway each morning is often an entire household hoping for security, stability and a better future.

Any political coalition that understands this reality will understand Johor better.

Any coalition that ignores it may find that the electorate understands the state far better than the politicians seeking to govern it.

* Phar Kim Beng is a professor of Asean Studies and director, Institute of Internationalisation and Asean Studies, International Islamic University of Malaysia.

** This is the personal opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of Malay Mail.