DECEMBER 7 — Every second term is a battle. An intense one. This is a political truth that extends across democracies, from Westminster to Washington, and certainly to Putrajaya.

No prime minister sails comfortably into a second mandate, not even those with towering popularity in their first term.

The midpoint of governance is where reality sharpens: the promises made collide with the constraints of the system, interest groups pull in different directions, and voters grow impatient for tangible results.

Malaysia today is no exception. The conversation surrounding Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s chances for a second term intensified after the Sabah elections, particularly with DAP’s clean sweep in reverse – eight seats contested, eight seats lost.

Commentators have been quick to frame this as a fatal blow. But in truth, Anwar’s position is neither guaranteed nor doomed. It is contested – not unlike every leader’s second-term bid everywhere else. He has 18 to 24 months to get ready and feisty.

And the factors in his favour still outnumber the liabilities, provided humility shapes his path forward.

The burden and blessing of incumbency

Incumbency is a double-edged sword. It grants the power to deliver results but also exposes every misstep to public scrutiny. Yet Anwar still benefits from the weight of federal authority. The government controls economic direction, budget allocations, investment pipelines and public services.

If Malaysia’s economy stabilises, wages rise strategically, and cornerstone projects – such as the Penang LRT and semiconductor expansion – move visibly forward, voters may reward continuity over chaos. This pattern repeats in democracies worldwide: economic competence is often the strongest predictor of electoral survival.

But incumbency only works when leaders remain humble, acknowledging public frustrations and responding to them with sincerity rather than defensiveness.

The Malay ground is not lost – it is competitive

Much has been said about Malay support shifting sharply to Perikatan Nasional (PN). But a closer look suggests something more nuanced: the Malay electorate is not monolithic. While PN surged in GE15, it faces structural weaknesses today.

PAS remains dominant but deeply polarising; Bersatu is fragmented and struggling organisationally. Many Malays prefer stability, predictability and a leader who does not swing to extremes. Anwar still occupies that moderate space.

This does not mean he is safe. It means the fight for the Malay ground is competitive, not predetermined. And strategic humility – engaging rural voters sincerely, avoiding elitist narratives and delivering practical improvements – will be decisive.

Sabah and Sarawak are still anchors, not obstacles

The Sabah election outcome did not weaken Anwar’s government. On the contrary, it gave him a clearer partner in Chief Minister Hajiji Noor and GRS. East Malaysian politics hinge more on autonomy, MA63 implementation and economic development than on Peninsula party loyalties.

Sarawak, too, prefers strong federal cooperation to accelerate its economic transformation. A stable federal government remains crucial to both states, and Anwar has maintained constructive ties with Premier Abang Johari.

In both Sabah and Sarawak, voters reward partnership, not paternalism. Humble federal leadership – respecting local identity and autonomy – will keep Borneo aligned with Putrajaya.

Opposition strength is not always uniform strength

PN is often depicted as the strongest opposition in Malaysia’s recent history. Yet its strength is uneven and heavily concentrated in the northern and east coast Malay belt. It has not broken into Sabah, Sarawak, or urban multi-ethnic constituencies.

To defeat an incumbent government, an opposition must offer a unifying national message. PN does not yet have this. Its internal imbalance – PAS’s dominance and Bersatu’s weakness – limits its ability to appeal broadly.

Anwar’s advantage lies not in PN’s weakness alone, but in PN’s inability to present a credible, centrist and inclusive government-in-waiting.

Still, complacency would be fatal. Every seat in a second-term fight must be earned.

The reform agenda is slow but not absent

Critics say the reforms are too slow. They are right to be impatient. But slow does not mean invisible. Under Anwar’s leadership, Malaysia has:

• strengthened procurement oversight
• moved cautiously but steadily on subsidy reform
• attracted record-high investments in key industries
• restored international confidence in Malaysia’s governance

These are building blocks. They may not excite voters today, but they will shape Malaysia’s economic trajectory for the next decade.

What is missing is not action but clear, empathetic communication. Reformers lose fights not because reforms fail, but because they fail to tell the country why reforms matter. Humility bridges that gap.

Chinese voters are signalling, not abandoning

The Chinese vote swing in Sabah and in several by-elections is real – but it is not irreversible. Chinese voters tend to be among the most strategic in Malaysia. They do not punish for ideology; they punish for performance.

Their message is consistent:

• deliver meaningful reforms, reduce cost-of-living burdens, strengthen education quality, and maintain Malaysia’s competitiveness.

If PH responds sincerely, the Chinese electorate remains open to persuasion. If PH assumes automatic support, it will lose them.

Humility in political communication – listening more, preaching less – will determine whether this relationship is rebuilt or severed.

Malaysia’s international position strengthens domestic credibility

Under Anwar, Malaysia has regained its footing in Asean and beyond.

As the region grapples with rivalry between China and the United States, Malaysia is seen as:

• a stabilising voice,
• a credible mediator,
• a defender of multilateralism,
• a rising hub for high-technology investments.

Foreign investors prefer stability. Neighbours prefer predictability. Both benefit Anwar’s domestic stability.

Yet global recognition must not blind leaders to domestic anxieties – another reason humility is indispensable.

A second term is never given – it is fought for

Ultimately, the question is not whether Anwar can secure a second term. The question is whether he understands that second terms are never rewarded automatically – they are fought seat by seat, sentiment by sentiment, state by state.

His advantages are real: incumbency, moderate Malay appeal, strong Borneo partnerships, a fragmented opposition, and renewed international confidence.

But so are his challenges: rising living costs, voter impatience, reform fatigue and weakened urban enthusiasm.

If Anwar leads with humility – absorbing criticism, adjusting policies, rebuilding trust – his path to a second term remains strong.

If he does not, then like every prime minister before him, the second-term fight may become an uphill climb.

In the end, every second term is a test. And Malaysia is watching to see whether humility and competence can triumph over cynicism and fatigue. That is the true battle ahead.

* Phar Kim Beng is a professor of Asean Studies and director at the Institute of International and Asean Studies, International Islamic University of Malaysia.

** This is the personal opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of Malay Mail.