NOVEMBER 26 — Hat Yai, one of southern Thailand’s most important commercial and transportation centres, has been forced to declare itself a disaster zone after experiencing what meteorologists describe as the most severe deluge in three centuries. As The Straits Times reports, more than 200,000 residents across Songkhla province have been affected by rapidly rising waters, submerged highways and widespread electricity failures.

What shocked observers was not only the intensity of the rainfall but the speed with which entire neighbourhoods were inundated. Even long-time residents accustomed to seasonal floods admitted that this time, the monsoon behaved with a level of ferocity never witnessed before.

This catastrophe is not Thailand’s alone. It is a warning to all member states of the Association of South-east Asian Nations (Asean). Across South-east Asia, the monsoon system is no longer seasonal, predictable or manageable. It has transformed into an erratic, cross-regional climatic force that routinely overwhelms national disaster systems.

The flooding in Hat Yai mirrors the “flood after flood” phenomenon along Vietnam’s central coast. It echoes the increasingly violent cyclone seasons in Myanmar. It parallels the sudden drought-to-deluge oscillations in the Philippines and the worsening inland floods across Malaysia’s east coast and Johor.

These events reveal a regional atmospheric system that has become unstable. Weather events that previously took days to develop now strike within hours. Storm cells migrate unpredictably across the South China Sea. Moisture corridors stretch across multiple borders, triggering simultaneous floods in different countries.

Despite this, Asean’s disaster-response framework remains overwhelmingly national.

Thailand relies on the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation. Malaysia depends on the National Disaster Management Agency. Indonesia uses the National Disaster Management Authority. The Philippines coordinates through the Office of Civil Defence. Vietnam works through the Central Steering Committee for Natural Disaster Prevention and Control. Singapore depends on the National Environment Agency and the Singapore Civil Defence Force.

All of these institutions are competent within their borders.

But the climate no longer respects those borders.

The monsoon today behaves less like a seasonal cycle and more like a regional climatic megastructure. It expands, contracts and intensifies across national boundaries with alarming speed. Yet Asean’s horizontal mechanisms—linking national agencies to each other—remain weak.

This gap becomes painfully visible during disasters involving tourists.

As Hat Yai flooded, thousands of visitors from different Asean states were suddenly stranded. Many could not reach their consulates. Others were unsure which local authority to call. Some did not know where designated safe zones or evacuation shelters were located.

At least 4,000 Malaysians remain trapped across southern Thailand. Many are scattered across Songkhla, Satun, Trang and Phuket. They are facing rising waters, disrupted communications and unclear evacuation instructions.

This situation is not unique to Malaysians.

Singaporeans, Vietnamese, Indonesians and Filipinos across the region routinely face the same confusion during extreme weather events.

A Malaysian family stranded in Hat Yai should not be left searching social media posts for information about road closures.

A Singaporean tourist caught in rising tides in Trang should not depend on scattered private WhatsApp groups to locate emergency shelters.

A Vietnamese student stranded in Krabi should not be left guessing which cross-border hotline to call.

These are precisely the moments when Asean’s commitment to being a “people-centred community” should matter most.

And yet, it is precisely in these moments that Asean’s limitations become most visible.

There is still no unified Asean emergency hotline.

No shared database of shelters for citizens of member states.

No coordinated evacuation protocols for cross-border travellers.

No centralised platform for real-time updates on weather systems affecting multiple countries simultaneously.

In the age of “mad climate outcomes,” this is an unacceptable gap.

The Asean Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance on Disaster Management (AHA Centre) plays an important role, but its focus is mainly post-disaster coordination. The region urgently needs a predictive, anticipatory institution: a fully fledged Asean Meteorological and Climate Command Centre.

This centre must consolidate real-time meteorological data from all national agencies. It must issue early-warning signals across borders, not just within them. And it must link weather intelligence directly to emergency response teams, tourism ministries and regional transport authorities.

Beyond data-sharing, South-east Asia needs an Asean Disaster Asset Grid.

Rescue boats, helicopters, drones, high-capacity pumps and mobile field hospitals must be strategically located in climate-vulnerable areas such as Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines. These assets must be deployable across borders within hours.

The region also requires joint flood-response teams trained in swift-water rescue, evacuation of stranded tourists, communications recovery and post-flood engineering support. These teams must be interoperable and equipped to move quickly between member states.

Climate displacement and tourism evacuation must be incorporated into Asean’s long-term planning. Floods, storms and landslides now threaten major transport hubs — Hat Yai, Kota Bharu, Yangon, Manila, Ho Chi Minh City — each affecting millions of travellers and workers.

Hat Yai’s 300-year flood is more than a natural disaster. It is a message from the future. It is a glimpse into what South-east Asia will increasingly face: unpredictable storms, instant floods, stranded populations and thousands of tourists unsure where to go or whom to call.

This crisis must become the turning point where Asean recognises that climate shocks are now regional in nature.

Floodwaters do not carry passports.

Storms do not stop for checkpoints.

And the atmosphere refuses to recognise political boundaries.

If Asean continues treating these disasters as isolated national incidents, more lives, livelihoods and tourists will be lost.

Hat Yai’s suffering should not be repeated.

It should be the moment Asean finally adapts to survive the storms of the next 300 years.

* Phar Kim Beng, PhD is the Professor of Asean Studies at International Islamic University of Malaysia and Director of Institute of International and Asean Studies (IINTAS).

** This is the personal opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of Malay Mail.