AUGUST, 28 — In an article published by Fulcrum titled "On the Horns of Anwar’s Twin Dilemmas,” former Umno leader Khairy Jamaluddin stated that the 15th state election (PRN15) held on August 12 witnessed Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Barisan Nasional (BN) competing to win Malay-Muslim votes, leading Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim to face two dilemmas.

First, whether the prime minister will compromise reformist principles and become more conservative to appeal to the Malay community. Second, whether to leave Umno, which performed poorly in PRN15, and seek alternative strategic steps.

Khairy outlined a way out for Anwar Ibrahim — to leave Umno, release Najib Razak to support Umno, and reconcile with the Chairman of Perikatan Nasional (PN), Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin. Is this an available option? Certainly not.

Furthermore, the Opposition, through the Deputy President of PAS, Tuan Ibrahim Tuan Man, rejected any political reconciliation with the Pakatan Harapan government. This means that Khairy’s solution was outright rejected by PN.

Khairy’s position still seems to be in the mode of wanting to bring down the Umno President, making his writing in Fulcrum more emotional than rational. Khairy’s campaign during PRN15 sent confusing signals. He campaigned for PN during the day and BN at night, under the pretext of friendship. This highlights Khairy’s vested interests in fulfilling his political agenda.

However, Khairy’s opinion about the occurrence of a "tsunami of discontent” during PRN15 is a reality. It is one of the elements contributing to the emotional wave.

This sentiment of discontent was previously employed by the Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu) when it brought down the PH government in 2020. However, Bersatu failed to win any seats in by-elections, despite purported cooperation with the Democratic Action Party (DAP). Eventually, Bersatu lost in the Melaka and Johor state elections to Umno-BN in 2021 and 2022. Now, the Youth Chief of Umno, Dr. Akmal Salleh, is also following the emotional strategy instilled by Bersatu to shake the leadership of Umno, especially its President, Datuk Seri Zahid Hamidi.

The question then arises: Does Umno-BN have no way to strengthen the party? Will a change of leadership at the beginning of a term alter the perceptions of Malay voters towards Umno?

The ebb and flow with Malay voters

The lack of ideals and historical knowledge of the party’s grassroots is seen as the cause of Umno-BN’s tendency to follow its opponents’ lead. However, Umno-BN has previously faced severe crises in elections due to the rejection of the majority of Malay voters, yet managed to rise again to maintain its hegemony within the BN government until the 2004 general election (PRU 2004).

First, the performance of "New” Umno and BN under Dr Mahathir’s leadership in the 1990 general election (PRU 1990) declined due to the rejection by Umno’s grassroots, leading to the formation of Semangat 46 under the leadership of Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah due to the Team A and Team B leadership crisis in 1988. The alliance of PAS and Semangat 46 through Angkatan Perpaduan Ummah (APU) resulted in Umno-BN suffering a heavy defeat in Terengganu, Kedah, and Kelantan.

Despite this, Umno-BN managed to maintain a majority in the federal Parliament and State Legislative Assemblies (DUN) during this time.

Second, the Reformasi wave of 1998, triggered by the dismissal of Anwar Ibrahim as Deputy Prime Minister and Deputy President of Umno, led to Umno-BN struggling to secure Malay votes in the 1999 general election (PRU 1999), leading to the state government of Terengganu falling to PAS through the cooperation of Barisan Alternatif (BA).

Both PRU 1990 and 1999 showed that the Malay Belt states were critical of the federal government and would continually shift based on political waves. Kedah is considered a swing state, having changed hands between four different governments since the "Political Tsunami” of the 2008 general election: Pakatan Rakyat, BN (2013), PH (2018), and PN (2023).

Nationalism and moderation

The concept of national unity, introduced through Wawasan 2020 by Mahathir in 1991, which aimed to create a Bangsa Malaysia (Malaysian race) and was laden with visions of the nation’s economic future, saved BN in the 1995 general election by gaining support from non-Malay voters and half of the Malay voters. Later, Semangat 46 was dissolved in 1996, and all Malay leaders returned to Umno.

During the Reformasi explosion of 1998, BN remained the central government in the 1999 general election due to the vision of Wawasan 2020, which managed to suppress the rising Malay sentiment against Umno-BN, with solid support from non-Malay voters aided by MCA, MIC, and component parties in Sabah and Sarawak.

The change of Umno’s President in 2003 from Mahathir to Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi was a beneficial transition for BN, as it achieved a resounding victory in the 2004 general election and reclaimed Terengganu from PAS. This change was made a year before the 2004 general election because Mahathir knew that Umno would lose if he continued as Prime Minister due to Malay anger.

These events showed that Umno-BN had experienced bitter times but managed to rise by emphasizing its national identity as a party for all Malaysians, both in terms of economics and politics. The combination of nationalism and moderation was able to pave a significant path to victory for BN, including PH.

The selection of new leaders for Umno-BN is a necessary step. Hastening it at the beginning of a term is not beneficial for the people and the country. Umno needs to collaborate with young and dedicated leaders for the long term, rather than elevating young leaders who only show their strength when the party falters in elections.

However, many Umno-BN leaders still seem to be driven by emotions. There are rumours that several Umno-BN parliamentarians want to vacate their seats to vent their frustration after PRN15. This action might not be wise, as once those seats are handed over to PN, there is no guarantee that Umno-BN members will contest those seats under the PN ticket. Even if PN wins those seats, the Perpaduan government would still have a majority with the support of GPS and GRS.

The path ahead for Umno-BN is different from the people’s perception. Take lessons from history’s fragments to support a better future. Return to the concepts of nationalism and moderation.

*This is the personal opinion of the writer pr publication and does not necessarily represent the views of Malay Mail.