WELLINGTON, Nov 8 — New Zealand’s political future hangs in the balance after a knife-edge vote that produced no clear winner.

Preliminary results show Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s right-wing coalition holds the balance of power, with only a narrow path to victory for the left-wing opposition.

Here’s what happens now the election is over.

What votes are left to count?  

Preliminary results released by New Zealand’s electoral commission early this morning showed a tally of 2.4 million votes cast during the advance period and on election day.

They do not include nearly 400,000 so-called “special votes”, among them around 100,000 votes cast overseas and those cast by people within New Zealand but outside the local electorate in which they live.

The full and final tally of votes will be released on November 27.

Historically, special votes leaned left, giving the Labour Party or Green Party an additional one or two seats in parliament at the expense of the right-bloc.

That can be either through changes to the total party vote, or through changes in the closest local electorate seats.

Overhangover 

Under the Mixed-Member Proportional (MMP) system, New Zealanders cast two votes — one for their local electorate representative and one for the party they wish to govern.

The 71 electorate members advance directly into parliament, with the remaining members decided based on party vote per centages.

For example, the Labour Party received 29.36 per cent of the preliminary vote, which gave it 36 seats.

Because it won 21 electorate races, those members are directly elected to represent the party and the remaining 15 members are assigned based on their ranking on the party list.

The system is designed to give parties that meet a five per cent voter threshold proportional power in parliament.

But this year, voters have manipulated the system by engineering a so-called “overhang”, whereby a party secures more local electorate seats than their vote per centage would normally allow.

The National Party has received 29.21 per cent of votes, which entitles it to 36 seats in the House.

But the party has won 42 local electorate races, meaning it received six seats more than it would otherwise be entitled to.

The left-wing indigenous Te Pati Maori also secured five electorate seats when its party vote was less than one per cent, a five-seat overhang.

It means parliament swells to its largest ever size on preliminary voting with 131 members, who may not even fit into the already-cramped debating chamber in Wellington.

Seat flipping 

All eyes now will be on a select few tight electorate races which could flip the election to the left-bloc, but their path to victory remains very narrow.

Labour Party candidates trail by margins of just a few hundred in two key races: Hamilton East and Wairarapa.

There are other seats National could flip in its favour based on special votes, however.

If Labour flipped those two seats and retained wins in other tight races, it would reduce National’s majority and the size of parliament, but the right-bloc would still cling to power.

The Labour-led opposition also needs a significant change in both electorates and party voting in order to clinch victory, but National’s overhang insulates it from any party voting changes.

Coalition talks

With the final votes in on November 27, only then will the parties begin coalition negotiations to form the next government.

But if the six-week-long talks that followed the last election are any hint, an official arrangement may not be in place this year.

The current coalition of National, libertarian ACT and populist NZ First have been in an uneasy alliance since 2023 and have said that they will work with each other again.

If the left-bloc breaks through in special voting, it could form a four-headed coalition with the Green Party, Te Pati Maori, and centrist newcomers Opportunity.

Opportunity leader Qiulae Wong has said her party will first negotiate with the party with the most votes. — AFP