OCT 1 — Hardly four months into his big job, this could be the baptism of fire that Datuk Mukhriz Mahathir needs.

And it comes two in a row—his bid for Umno vice-presidency and the impending by-election on home soil in Sungai Limau.

Win or lose is not the sole point but rather it is going to be how Mukhriz, a budding political blueblood thrust into the laserlights by assuming the Kedah menteri besar position after the general election, handles the pressure in the coming weeks.

Both are tough propositions. A victory in one will be just opportune, in both he will fly.

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However the terrain appears to be rough even with the star ratings he has been getting about his vice-presidency bid from pro-Umno bloggers.

But Mukhriz should know this game very well by now because in the last party election where he contested the youth chief post, he was very much the leading contender against Khairy Jamaluddin and Datuk Seri Dr Mohd Khir Toyo until the final results came out favouring Khairy.

This time Mukhriz has thrown his hat into the vice-presidency ring where the battle is stiffer and the stakes sky high. For one of the three seats, he is up against five other contenders—three formidable incumbents and two tenacious party veterans.

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One thing in favour of him is the call for transformation in Umno. But that, as everyone knows, is what is only ringing out loud outwardly. What lies beneath is much more complex and sometimes knotting into intriques.

Yes, he has an influential father behind him. But there are always booby traps around. Already the whispers are being exchanged rapidly about the remarks being made by daddy, party elder Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad, about many things, especially the one purportedly saying that Umno is filling up with stupid people as the younger and clever ones never get a chance to go up the ranks.

As reported in The Economist last week, there is also talk that Mukhriz would be a threat to party president and prime minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak if he becomes Umno vice-president as this could further push certain forces to oust Najib. Another poison arrow.

Mukhriz’s camp has denied that he is a proxy for his father or anyone else. But that again is a perception that is hard to erase, especially in a high-stake battle against seasoned opponents some of whom have got a reputation of being “generous” on all fronts.

A menteri besar in the vice-presidency ring would enjoy big advantages 20 years ago when MBs carried so much bargaining power to secure votes. But now Kelab MB is no more and solidarity has faded among them.

As for the Sungai Limau by-election, Mukhriz who is likely to be field commander for Barisan Nasional by virtue of the fact that he is Kedah Umno chief, could score if he plays his cards right.

In the first place, this state seat, like Kedah as a whole, cannot be said to be a Pas stronghold although it is right smack in the padi heartland and not far from the big Pas complex in Kota Sarang Semut.

Situated about 35km south of Alor Star, Sungai Limau is in the Jerai parliamentary constituency and lies in the district of Yan where some of the Kedah’s best known personalities and business people come from, including Tan Sri Sanusi Junid, Tan Sri Tajudin Ramli and the famous Hussein family of laureates Tan Sri Ismail, Datuk Abdullah and Datuk Ibrahim.

In the last round, Kedah Pas chief Tan Sri Azizan Abdul Razak won by a little more than 2,000. In a constituency of 25,000, the majority is not insurmountable for BN when the by-election comes.

Mukhriz, 48, seems to be pressing the right buttons so far in his seat at Wisma Darulaman. The last I heard the civil servants liked his fast-moving style and he has pleased many people by having religious forums and lectures at Seri Mentaloon, the MB’s official residence.

Whatever it is, the going is still rough ahead, one coming on Oct 19 when the Umno election results are known and the other not long after that when he leads the  troops in his first by-election battle.

* This is the personal opinion of the columnist.