KUALA LUMPUR, July 29 — The coming Umno party polls is unlikely to result in a major shake-up of the party leadership because potential contenders are afraid that they would be seen as placing themselves ahead of the party’s interests, former New Straits Times (NST) group editor-in-chief Datuk A. Kadir Jasin has said.

Ahead of the party elections due this year, senior Umno leaders have called for party posts — particularly the president’s and deputy president’s positions — to be left uncontested, which could lead to potential candidates feeling reluctant to rock the boat by declaring their intention.

“The aspiration within and outside of Umno is for this new polling system to spark a heated and democratic race. But the reality is that a more stifling status quo may happen.

“Because the new method requires the candidate to offer himself, maybe many will feel shy and hesitant to contest — takut dituduh hidung tak mancung, pipi tersorong-sorong (afraid of being accused of wanting to put themselves ahead of others),” Kadir wrote today in a blog posting titled “Pemilihan Umno: Pengekalan status quo” (Umno elections: Status quo remains).

Kadir noted that Umno had changed its polling system to candidates offering themselves instead of party divisions nominating them, but said the new system may fail to make the elections more democratic.

He explained that under the old system, party branches and subsequently the party divisions would nominate potential candidates, with the candidate only having to declare their intention to contest after nomination closes.

Kadir predicted that the lack of challengers may see Umno president Datuk Seri Najib Razak and his deputy Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin retaining their positions.

He also expected the three Umno vice presidents — Datuk Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, Hishamuddin Hussein and Shafie Apdal — to defend their posts, naming minister Datuk Seri Mustafa Mohamed and former Malacca Chief Minister Datuk Seri Mohd Ali Rustam as possible challengers against the trio.

But he then appeared to dismiss the likelihood of Mustafa’s contesting despite saying that the minister of international trade and industry has a chance of winning a vice-presidency post.

“But Mustafa is too humble to ‘nominate’ himself,” Kadir said.

Kadir said that Umno Youth chief Khairy Jamaluddin could win his post uncontested, saying that Kedah Mentri Besar Datuk Mukhriz Mahathir is unlikely to mount a challenge against Khairy.

Mukhriz, the son of former Prime Minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad, had previously lost in the contest for the Youth chief’s post against Khairy but was last week appointed the new Kedah Umno chief.

Kadir said Mukhriz could be contented with gunning for a supreme council post instead of a vice-presidency within the party.

He pointed to Wanita Umno and Puteri Umno as being the only two party wings to see a tussle at the top, noting that former Puteri Umno chief Datuk Seri Azalina Othman Said had already indicated that she would go for Datuk Seri Shahrizat Abdul Jalil’s Wanita Umno chief position.

He cited the current Puteri Umno chief Datuk Rosnah Abdul Rashid Shirlin’s age when saying that there would be fresh faces in the wing.

The polls for Umno’s Youth, Wanita and Puteri wings will fall on September 28, while the contest for supreme council seats will be held on October 5.

The contest for the presidency and deputy presidency will take place during the party’s annual general assembly from December 2 to 7.