JERUSALEM, Oct 22 — When Israel goes to the polls this month, voters will weigh in on military conscription, the economy and how the state should investigate its inability to prevent Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attack.

AFP looks at the key issues shaping the campaign as Israel gears up for elections on October 27.

Accountability for October 7 

Many Israelis have demanded an independent state commission of inquiry into the failures that allowed Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attack on Israel, which resulted in the deaths of more than 1,200 people.

The deadliest day in Israel’s history, it inflicted a profound national trauma whose repercussions continue to shape the country’s politics, society and collective psyche.

Israel has launched commissions of inquiry after previous national crises, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s main challenger in the upcoming poll, ex-army chief Gadi Eisenkot, has pledged to do so again, calling it “a way to prevent the next disaster”.

But Netanyahu’s government, which was in office when the attack occurred, has rejected the calls.

Instead, it has blamed the security establishment for failing to prevent the assault and proposed a bipartisan commission whose members would be appointed by politicians.

Opposition figure Yair Lapid said the government-proposed commission’s purpose “is to whitewash (those responsible) and prevent a genuine investigation”.

Netanyahu himself has faulted the security services for not waking him sooner on the day of the attack.

He faces mounting accusations that he ignored early warnings—notably from the UAE, which reportedly told him Hamas was planning a major operation.

The premier has also come under increased scrutiny over his government’s past dealings with Qatar, which backed Hamas financially with Israeli approval and has long hosted the group’s political leadership.

Future security strategy 

For decades, Israel’s security doctrine has rested on three principles: strong intelligence, deterrence and short wars.

But that changed after October 7.

The government has instead embraced long military campaigns, reflected in the army’s continued presence in “security zones” in Gaza, southern Lebanon and Syria.

It also carries out near-daily operations in the occupied West Bank, has launched two wars with Iran and has conducted strikes against Yemen’s Tehran-backed Houthi rebels, fuelling debate over the country’s ability to sustain a military deployed on multiple fronts.

Tens of thousands of reservists have been repeatedly mobilised since 2023, often at significant personal and economic cost, while military leaders continue to warn of manpower shortages.

“We have gone from a logic of deterrence and prosperity between wars to a society that lives permanently by the sword,” said Ofer Shelah, a researcher at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies (INSS).

The campaigns have come at a cost to Israel’s reputation, drawing fierce international criticism, particularly over the war in Gaza, where the Palestinian death toll has exceeded 74,000, according to the territory’s health ministry.

Even US President Donald Trump publicly rebuked Netanyahu over Israel’s conduct during the latest conflict with Iran, at one point launching a profanity-laced tirade after fresh Israeli strikes on Lebanon threatened to derail ceasefire negotiations.

Religion, identity, conscription 

With the military facing manpower shortages, the debate over exemptions from military service for ultra-Orthodox Jews has evolved into a broader argument over Israel’s identity.

Ultra-Orthodox parties want to preserve exemptions that allow religious students to avoid military service, and they are backed by Netanyahu’s Likud party and, by and large, by its far-right coalition partners.

But opposition parties support ending the exemptions and have said they would refuse to join any government that includes ultra-Orthodox parties.

Eisenkot—who lost a son in the Gaza war—has also taken aim at the exemptions, characterising Netanyahu’s government as one that “promotes evasion of duty without shame”.

Netanyahu, meanwhile, has struggled to strike a balance on the issue, recently criticising the arrest of ultra-Orthodox draft dodgers in an interview, while also insisting that those not engaged in full-time Torah study should enlist.

The issue has spawned protests by ultra-Orthodox demonstrators, including one in which they stormed the home of Israel’s military police chief.

But the divide extends beyond military service.

Just days before parliament was dissolved, the outgoing coalition introduced measures promoting gender separation in some public spaces and passed legislation emphasising the importance of Torah study.

Supporters say these policies strengthen Israel’s Jewish character, but critics argue they move the country toward greater religious influence over public life.

Surging cost of living 

While security dominates the political debate, the economy remains a major concern for many voters.

Despite strong economic growth, with GDP more than doubling since 2000 and unemployment historically low, Israelis continue to face one of the world’s highest costs of living.

At the same time, median wages remain below the OECD average, putting increasing pressure on households.

Economists point to long-standing structural problems, including housing shortages, trade barriers and limited competition in key sectors, as the main drivers of high prices.

The wars have added another challenge.

Since 2023, Israel’s defence budget has doubled, placing growing pressure on public finances. — AFP