BANGKOK, Feb 13 — China’s emissions of planet-warming carbon dioxide likely fell last year, analysis showed Thursday, raising hopes the world’s biggest emitter might be nearing a peak, but continued coal growth means progress is fragile.

Carbon dioxide 

China’s CO2 emissions likely fell 0.3 percent last year, according to analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) for climate website Carbon Brief.

That extended a trend of “flat or falling” emissions that began in 2024, and could raise hopes China will meet a 2030 goal for peaking emissions a few years early.

However progress risks “being reversed by either stronger-than-expected consumption growth in 2026, or, more likely, weaker growth in renewables this year”, said David Fishman, a China energy expert at the Lantau Group consultancy.

Emissions fell across almost all sectors, including electricity and construction, though they rose sharply in the chemical industry.

China emits over 30 percent of global greenhouse gases, and aims for carbon neutrality by 2060.

While its emissions are not rising, they are not falling fast enough to meet its stated targets, said CREA lead analyst Lauri Myllyvirta.

“The optimistic scenario is that clean energy growth continues to exceed government targets and that delivers a much better emissions outcome,” he told AFP.

Renewables 

China is installing renewable energy, particularly solar and wind, at a pace that exceeds anywhere else in the world.

It added more solar than the rest of the world combined in 2025, and twice as much wind.

It is also leaning on hydropower and nuclear to shift power generation away from polluting coal.

Renewables are still growing, with China accounting for around a third of announced or under-construction solar and wind last year, research by Global Energy Monitor (GEM) showed this week.

Renewable generation has not yet caught up with capacity though, meaning new solar and wind are not always producing as much electricity as they could.

That is partly due to a rigid grid system that sometimes favours coal, which could be countered by planned reforms and increased storage capacity.

“Electrification is spreading more deeply into the economy,” said Muyi Yang, senior energy analyst at think tank Ember.

“It started with the easier sectors, but now it’s moving into more energy-intensive and traditionally fossil-heavy industries.”

Coal 

Even as it ramps up renewables, China has continued to build coal power.

Last year, new and revived coal proposals hit a record high, and capacity additions were the highest in a decade, analysis by CREA and GEM found.

Coal still generates the largest share of China’s electricity, though the percentage has been falling for years.

Beijing’s continued coal construction is partly due to fears about the “intermittency” of weather-dependent renewables.

The grid is also still largely designed on the assumption that coal provides “baseload” power, though that is changing.

Coal plants are being progressively retrofitted to make transmission more flexible, and grid reforms should also bring more renewables into the system.

That raises the prospect of “stranded” coal plants that are not needed, warned GEM research analyst Christine Shearer.

“China is building coal capacity far faster than it is using it.”

Green economy 

The energy transition and electric vehicles have become key drivers of China’s economy—a factor analysts say will make the shift durable.

Clean energy technologies drove over a third of China’s growth last year, according to analysis by CREA for Carbon Brief.

That includes solar panels, electric vehicles and batteries, among other technologies.

There are some headwinds, including solar “overcapacity” and trade constraints like tariffs.

But China is effectively “re-basing its industrial economy on a cleaner foundation,” said Yang.

“Once this kind of structural shift begins, it’s not easy to reverse.” — AFP