APRIL 2 — Malaysia is facing a surge in prices across the board—fuel, food, fertilisers, animal feed, and logistics.

The instinctive response, as in many democracies, is to direct frustration at the government of the day. Yet in the current moment, such a reaction risks misdiagnosing the problem entirely.

The reality is stark: the drivers of inflation today are overwhelmingly external.

To attribute the rise in prices to Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim (PMX) or domestic policy failures is not only inaccurate—it is strategically unhelpful.

The epicentre of the current economic shock lies thousands of kilometres away, in West Asia. 

The ongoing war has disrupted one of the most critical arteries of the global economy: the Strait of Hormuz. 

This narrow waterway carries a substantial share of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas. Any threat to its stability sends immediate tremors through global energy markets.

When energy prices rise, everything else follows.

Fuel costs increase first, but they do not remain isolated. 

Transportation becomes more expensive. Shipping costs surge. Insurance premiums escalate. Supply chains slow down or reroute.

These costs are then transmitted into the broader economy. The next layer of impact is fertilisers.

Modern agriculture is inseparable from energy inputs. Fertilisers such as urea and ammonia are produced using natural gas. When gas prices spike, fertiliser production becomes more expensive. 

At the same time, disruptions in Gulf exports reduce global supply. The result is a sharp increase in fertiliser prices.

Farmers, facing higher input costs, have limited options. 

They can reduce usage, absorb losses, or pass on costs. In most cases, the burden is transmitted forward—leading to higher prices for crops.

From there, the effects cascade into animal feed.

Livestock production depends on grains that are themselves affected by fertiliser costs. 

As feed becomes more expensive, so too do poultry, beef, dairy, and eggs. This is why consumers begin to feel the impact most acutely at the supermarket.

What we are witnessing is not isolated inflation. It is a systemic chain reaction: energy to fertiliser, fertiliser to crops, crops to feed, and feed to food.

Malaysia, as a highly open and trade-dependent economy, cannot escape these global forces. It imports key inputs. It relies on international shipping networks. It is deeply integrated into the global economic system.

In such a context, the idea that domestic policy alone can contain or reverse price increases is unrealistic.

This does not mean that policy is irrelevant. Far from it. 

The government still has a critical role to play in mitigating the impact—through targeted subsidies, fiscal support, and structural reforms. But these measures can only cushion the blow, not eliminate it.

To expect otherwise is to expect the impossible.

This is why Malaysians must exercise restraint in assigning blame.

Criticism, when misdirected, can undermine public confidence, distort policy debates, and weaken national cohesion at a time when unity is essential. It risks turning a global crisis into a domestic political contest, diverting attention from the real sources of the problem.

A more constructive approach is to recognise the nature of the shock.

This is, in many ways, a Black Swan event—an external, unpredictable, and high-impact disruption that no single country can control. 

The war in West Asia has triggered a chain of consequences that extend far beyond the battlefield, reshaping global markets and economic conditions.

Malaysia is not alone in this.

Across Asean and beyond, countries are grappling with similar pressures. 

The Philippines has moved toward emergency measures. Other Southeast Asian economies are facing rising inflation and fiscal strain. Even advanced economies are struggling to contain the ripple effects.

The challenge, therefore, is collective and systemic.

What Malaysia needs now is not division, but clarity.

The government must continue to communicate transparently about the external drivers of inflation.

It must explain the limits of policy tools and the rationale behind its responses. At the same time, it must act decisively to protect the most vulnerable segments of society.

But the public, too, has a role to play.

Understanding the global nature of the crisis can help temper expectations and foster a more measured response. It allows for a more rational conversation about what can and cannot be done. 

It creates space for policies that are pragmatic rather than politically expedient.

In times of external shock, national resilience depends as much on public perception as on policy design.

If Malaysians can recognise that the current price surge is not the result of domestic mismanagement, but of global disruption, the country will be better positioned to navigate the الأزمة with coherence and purpose.

This does not mean abandoning accountability. It means anchoring it in reality.

The war in West Asia has unleashed forces that no government—whether in Malaysia, Asean, or beyond—can fully control. The price increases we are witnessing are the downstream effects of that conflict.

To misattribute them is to weaken the very capacity needed to respond.

Malaysia must remain focused, united, and clear-eyed.

Because in a world where external shocks are becoming more frequent and more severe, the ability to correctly diagnose the source of a crisis is the first step toward overcoming it.

* Phar Kim Beng is professor of Asean Studies and director of the Institute of International and Asean Studies, International Islamic University of Malaysia.

** This is the personal opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of Malay Mail.