MAY 4 — The latest polls appear to be not in favour of Pakatan Harapan.

Based on the polls conducted by Merdeka Center as of April 9 this year, only about 7.9 per cent of Malay voters are likely to swing in favour of the opposition. This weak "Malay tsunami” is not enough to bring about a change in the federal administration.

Even with an 8 per cent swing of Malay votes towards the opposition, BN will still have sufficient votes to keep its power.

However, there are serious doubts about the polls.

The polls show that BN will see the biggest drop in its Malay support in Johor, down from 81.8 per cent in 2013 to 60.9 per cent, while the Malay support in Kedah is only marginally lower by 1.1 per cent to 53.4 per cent.

Does that imply that Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin is much more influential than Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad?

In the 2013 general elections, Dr Mahathir helped BN recapture Kedah, and with both Dr Mahathir and his son now contesting in the state, is it possible that they will only have a minimal impact on Umno?

In a January Merdeka Centre survey among 1,007 individuals in Johor (55 per cent Malay, 38 per cent Chinese and 7 per cent Indian), as much as 55 per cent respondents were unhappy with the performance of the federal government and only 39 per cent said they were satisfied.

Meanwhile, 54 per cent of respondents said they were unhappy with Datuk Seri Najib Razak.

Among the reasons for the people's frustration, 21 per cent attributed it to the rising cost of living, followed by poor administrative management (14 per cent), corruption (11 per cent), poor economic management (7 per cent), government negligence of people's well-being (5 per cent) and unfairness (4 per cent).

Merdeka Centre founder Ibrahim Suffian said then that up to 83 per cent of Malay voters in Johor supported BN in 2013, but BN's favorability rating among Malay respondents had since dropped from 65 per cent to 58 per cent.

If the numbers were justifiable, the support rating of BN among the Malays in Johor would have gone up since January instead of going down.

Another interesting set of figures is that BN's favourability rating has increased from 45.6 per cent to 54 per cent among Malay voters in Kelantan, and from 51.5 per cent to 56 per cent in Terengganu.

If these numbers hold, Kelantan will fall into the hands of BN in GE14.

PAS president Datuk Seri Hadi Awang has claimed that his party would play the role of "kingmaker” in the coming general elections. What if the "cooperation” with Umno does not bring any good to PAS but may cost it the Kelantan state administration?

Based on the polls, BN will win in three-cornered fights in 121 parliamentary seats in West Malaysia if 53 per cent of Malay voters support BN, 27 per cent PAS and 20 per cent PH.

As PH gets the support of 85 per cent Chinese voters and 54 per cent Indian voters, PAS is expected to lose in all constituencies with fewer than 80 per cent Malay voters.

Although according to the polls, Pakatan Harapan will have a stronger support among Chinese voters in Johor, the support rates of BN and PH in the state are expected to be very close, at 47 per cent and 42 per cent respectively, while PAS clinches 11 per cent.

Nevertheless, we are practising a "first-past-the-post” electoral system and a very close support rating will not be reflected in the number of seats won.

Merdeka Centre predicts that BN only needs the support of 47.5 per cent of Malay voters to win 95 seats in West Malaysia in order form the next government with the further contribution from East Malaysia components.

As for PH, it needs to win at least 100 seats on the peninsula (with at least 34 per cent of Malay votes) because it can only manage a handful of Chinese-majority seats in Sarawak while its hope of bagging a bigger victory in Sabah is a tall order given the disunity among opposition parties in the state.

Additionally, BN only needs to win 50 per cent of the smallest 112 seats in the country which collectively make up only 33 per cent of all voters, meaning only 16.5 per cent of votes are needed for BN to win the elections.

With so many factors to the advantage of BN, it is hard to imagine the ruling coalition will lose Putrajaya.

However, if more Malay voters swing away from BN, the final outcome could be a real shocker, not unlike the US presidential election or the UK Brexit referendum. — Sin Chew Daily

This article was first published here. 

* This is the personal opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of Malay Mail.