NOVEMBER 3 — In late September 2017, the Islamic State’s propaganda mouthpiece, Al Hayat Media Centre, released a video ("Inside Khilafah 41") featuring Megat Shahdan Abdul Samad alias Abu Uqayl, a Singaporean.

Dressed in military fatigues, Shahdan urged pro-IS supporters in the region to join the jihadist group to fight its enemies.

The undated video, probably recorded in Syria, contains three messages for IS jihadists and supporters.

First, it encouraged the jihadists to show perseverance in their struggle notwithstanding recent losses to the so-called Caliphate in Iraq and Syria.

Second, the video urged the aspiring jihadists to perform the so-called hijrah (migration) to IS-held or controlled territories.

Third, it appealed to its supporters to join the mujahidin in the Philippines, particularly, or move to Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Libya, Afghanistan or West Africa.

These messages now have added significance in the light of the fall of Raqqa, the remaining fighters scattered in small groups in Iraq and Syria, and possible dispersal of the foreign fighters.

According to the Ministry of Home Affairs, Shahdan, 39, left Singapore in 2014 to work in the Middle East, where he was believed to have been radicalised.

The security agencies have been aware of his presence in Syria and have been monitoring his activities regularly.

Furthermore, the Ministry revealed that Shahdan was a school dropout with a criminal background. He was a secret society member with "a string of drug and criminal convictions.” Between 1997 and 2009, he was frequently jailed and put on various drug supervision regimes.

The significance of Shahdan's video

Of the contemporary jihadist groups, IS has been most successful in exploiting social media platforms in a strategic manner.

By definition, terrorism is propaganda by the deed and by extension, the social-media operations of jihadi groups constitute propaganda by communication and ideas.

Given the complexity of terrorism’s incentive structure, the terrorists can make a virtue out of any given situation. For instance, if the jihadists are killed, in their distorted view, it constitutes martyrdom that gets them to their ultimate destination, Paradise.

If they survive, they would continue to defend and expand the "Khilafah.” Even if they are losing territory, as is the case now, they consider it a test from God requiring them to show steadfastness.

It is in this context that in the near future, IS’ social media propaganda is likely to get more strident and challenging. For IS, these propaganda videos serve multiple purposes.

First, they seek to inform IS sympathisers that the "Caliphate” is alive and well, and on the path to victory, notwithstanding territorial losses and military setbacks over the last one year.

Second, these videos form part of IS’ recruitment campaign to replenish its depleting ranks and boost the morale of those fighting for the terror group.

Lastly, the videos propagate IS’ extremist narrative (ideological warfare) and information on bomb-making and other forms of terrorist attacks.

From this perspective, arguably, Shahdan’s video is simultaneously delivering local (Singapore), regional (Southeast Asia) and global messages, since English is used in it.

Earlier IS Southeast Asian videos have been primarily in Malay or Bahasa Indonesia. Hitherto, Singaporeans had not been featured in any significant way in IS propaganda videos or game plans.

A Malay-Muslim Singaporean is now being showcased to demonstrate that some Singaporeans are still attracted to IS’ ideology and finding their way to Syria and Iraq, particularly from the Middle East. Furthermore, IS is also proclaiming that it has a global footprint and that its ideology and militancy are being exported worldwide.

It reaffirms a "jihadi” organisational structure that is not headquartered in Iraq or Syria, but decentralised in various parts of the world from West Africa to East Asia. Moreover, with the loss of its Iraqi stronghold in Mosul, and its own capital Raqqa ceded, IS is signalling the start of the era of the "virtual caliphate”, where the centrality of territory would be de-emphasised, while ideological warfare and decentralised jihadist operations (lone-wolf attacks) will be prioritised globally.

This "model” of "jihad” is not dissimilar to Al-Qaeda’s franchising strategy in the post-9/11 era. Al-Qaeda, from a vertical-hierarchical organisation, decentralised its organisational structure by granting autonomy to its affiliates in Yemen, Sahel and the Islamic Maghreb.

Likewise, IS is delegating power and autonomy to its different Wilayats and the lone-wolf actors to continue the so-called jihad in other territories. In this paradigm, fighters in any region can go to any IS-supported Wilayat in Yemen, Afghanistan, Libya, Africa or Afghanistan.

Given this approach, authorities in Southeast Asia will have to pay closer attention to the conflict in Mindanao and the growing humanitarian crisis affecting the Rohingya in Myanmar.

It should not come as a surprise if Myanmar is targeted by IS for exploitation as IS has already mentioned the Rohingya issue in its publications. There are also pro-IS units operating in Bangladesh in competition with Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent for influence in Myanmar.

Shahdan’s call for "jihad” and his video are constant reminders of the need for continued high-level vigilance against extremist teachings and terrorist propaganda in the real world as well as in the murky cyber world.

The region should brace itself for the "virtualisation” of IS (from a territorial-based entity), and greater jihadisation of online space, especially now that it has lost Raqqa. Counter-radicalisation or counter-violent extremism efforts must continue relentlessly, even as kinetic measures are stepped up to neutralise terrorists. Special attention should be paid to developments in Mindanao and the Rakhine state to prevent any escalation that could be exploited by "jihadists”. — TODAY

* Jasminder Singh is a Senior Analyst with the International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR), at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, Singapore.

** Muhammad Haziq Jani is a Research Analyst at ICPVTR. This article first appeared in RSIS’ Counter Terrorist Trends and Analysis.

*** This is the personal opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of Malay Mail Online.