LOS ANGELES, July 15 — The Walt Disney Company is facing a stark reality check as its live-action reimagining of Moana opened far below market expectations, grossing just US$43 million (RM175 million) in North America and US$95 million globally.
The opening is a critical blow for a production that carried a staggering US$250 million price tag, with an additional US$120 million spent on global marketing. Unless ticket sales see a significant rebound, the film risks becoming a high-profile financial failure, highlighting the volatility of Disney's current reliance on legacy IP, Variety reported.
“Disney’s strategy is dependent on whether audiences see the remake as an event or a duplicate,” says Jeff Bock, an analyst at Exhibitor Relations. “This was the latter. People wanted Moana 3, not a remake of the original.”
The exhaustion of the vault
Having pioneered the modern live-action trend, Disney has largely exhausted its classic animated library. After reimagining staples like The Lion King, Aladdin, and The Little Mermaid, the studio has pivoted to properties from this century.
While last year’s Lilo & Stitch became a billion-dollar success, Moana suggests that a CG makeover is no longer a guaranteed draw, particularly when the original remains readily available on Disney+.
David A. Gross, head of movie consulting firm FranchiseRe, argues that Disney may be miscalculating the timeline required for a film to achieve "classic" status. “It takes time to be a classic, not just success,” Gross notes, suggesting that the gap between the original and the remake was insufficient to trigger genuine nostalgia.
Market saturation and timing errors
The commercial misfire is likely compounded by poor scheduling. Moana arrived just two years after the animated sequel, Moana 2, which debuted in November 2024.
The overlap was a result of a strategic pivot; Moana 2 was originally conceived as a television series developed alongside the live-action film. When Disney retooled the series into a theatrical feature, they delayed the remake by one year to create separation. However, the window proved too narrow for audiences to miss the characters of Moana and Maui.
Data from Gross indicates that Disney’s most successful revivals — including 2017’s Beauty and the Beast and 2019’s The Lion King — followed an average wait of 27 years. This gap allowed the original audience to age into adulthood and bring their own children to the cinema, effectively doubling the target demographic.
The break-even challenge
From a balance sheet perspective, Moana is in a precarious position. Because theatre owners retain approximately half of ticket sales, the film requires at least US$600 million in global box office returns to break even.
If it mirrors the trajectory of 2025’s Snow White, which earned US$205 million against a US$250 million budget, Disney could face a theatrical loss exceeding US$100 million. The financial risk was amplified by high overheads, including a nearly US$30 million package for star and producer Dwayne Johnson, and cost overruns stemming from the 2023 labour strikes.
Ancillary revenue as a safety net
Despite the theatrical struggle, Disney views these "tentpole" releases as loss leaders for a broader ecosystem. The Moana brand remains a powerhouse in consumer products and theme parks, having driven 22 million toy sales and 26 billion music streams since 2016.
“Disney will keep making these. For every one that doesn’t do well, there will be a Lilo & Stitch that sets the world on fire,” says Paul Dergarabedian, head of marketplace trends at Rentrak. “The studio just has to keep the budgets in line.”
As Disney continues to develop a live-action Tangled and further Lilo & Stitch spinoffs, the Moana experience serves as a cautionary tale: in the business of nostalgia, timing is as critical as the IP itself.