LOS ANGELES, June 23 — Director Michael Bay will deliver his final instalment in the Transformers movie series this week at a time when Paramount Pictures is desperately seeking a summer hit. Early signs aren’t promising.

The Last Knight is projected to generate less opening-weekend revenue than any of the five films in the once-mighty franchise about robot warriors that can transform into cars, according to BoxOfficePro.com. A poor showing would follow the disappointing release of Paramount’s Baywatch, which some analysts viewed as a potential hit. It’s now struggling to break even at the box office.

Bob Bakish, chief executive officer of Paramount parent  Viacom Inc, and new studio chief Jim Gianopulos need a strong showing by The Last Knight to build momentum for an extension of the Transformers franchise, which is based on the Hasbro Inc and Tomy Co toy cars and planes. The studio is planning a movie for next year based on the Autobot character Bumblebee, which Bay will produce.

"It is very important,” said Shawn Robbins, chief analyst at BoxOfficePro.com. "They are about to begin a transition, and they are looking for franchises they can rely on.”

Paramount has struggled in recent years as its film slate has shrunk, with operating losses reaching US$445 million (RM1.9 billion) in the 2016 fiscal year. In March, Viacom picked former 20th Century Fox studio chief Gianopulos to run Paramount and revitalise the fabled film studio behind The Godfather and Raiders of the Lost Ark.

Gianopulos replaced Brad Grey, who ran Paramount for a decade. Misjudgements included a US$115 million charge for a failed production of Monster Trucks. In an interview with the Hollywood Reporter published Wednesday, Gianopulos cited franchise "fatigue” as one of the hurdles facing the studio.

Cool summer

The release of The Last Knight comes during a difficult summer season, which typically begins the first weekend in May and runs through Labour Day. Hollywood studios have struggled to lure moviegoers to new instalments of once-popular franchises or attempts to reboot titles like The Mummy and Pirates of the Caribbean.

Through June 19, summer box-office sales are down 3.9 per cent compared with the same period last year, according to data provider ComScore Inc. May’s tally was the lowest for that month since 1999. Analysts have downgraded their forecasts for the sector, which hit movie-theatre stocks such as those of Regal Entertainment Group and Cinemark Holdings Inc.

Even with the tough climate for sequels in the US, foreign markets like China have made action movies worthwhile for studios. Robbins estimates that The Last Knight could generate more than US$800 million in global ticket sales, though that would still be the lowest tally since the first instalment in 2007, according to Box Office Mojo.

As a director, Bay’s movies have grossed more than US$2 billion at theatres in the US and Canada. But it’s overseas where his recent movies have thrived, with the global total of his previous 12 directorial outings reaching US$5.8 billion, according to Box Office Mojo. Robbins said the departure of Bay can be a positive, allowing a new creative take on the series. The as-yet-unnamed next instalment of Transformers is scheduled for 2019.

Looking abroad

The Last Knight will open internationally in 42 markets starting today, and Paramount will need a strong overseas performance to save the US$217 million film. Studio executives may take some comfort from the performance of Age of Extinction in 2014, a Transformers film notable for its strong international performance — only 22 percent of ticket sales came from the domestic market. The movie could generate 2.97 billion yuan (US$434 million or RM1.86 billion) in China alone, according to analysts at UOB Kayhian Investment Co. That would be a record for the series.

In the US, the latest instalment opened early with showings on June 20 and 21 that pulled in US$15.7 million, and the studio suggested a five-day haul of US$70 million. Over the three days of the coming weekend, the movie will collect US$46 million, according to BoxOfficePro.com, which has been lowering its forecast for the movie. The prior three films in the series averaged about US$100 million in their openings.

In The Last Knight, Mark Wahlberg reprises his role as Cade Yeager for the last time. The battle of the Autobots this time starts back in the Middle Ages, with a new goal to save the planet. Anthony Hopkins returns as an English lord. So far, the reviews have been harsh, with only 17 per cent positive, according to aggregator RottenTomatoes.com.

Paramount executives are hoping there won’t be a repeat of the reception for Baywatch. With only US$120 million at the box office worldwide and costs of at least US$69 million, according to Box Office Mojo, the TV show reboot will struggle to break even, since the studio must split revenue with movie theatres. Ghost in the Shell was another bust this year. Based on the Japanese tale and featuring Scarlett Johansson, the movie was roundly criticised for casting a Caucasian in the lead role. Paramount’s worldwide share of sales didn’t cover production costs.

Paramount may yet find its footing this year with a crop of critically acclaimed films. Surburbicon and Downsizing are highlights on the autumn slate for the studio, for which early glimpses have already generated positive buzz. — Bloomberg