JANUARY 22 — No, I can’t really predict the future but recently I have been wondering what the people of Singapore will look like in 50 years.

If you take the MRT in 2067 and look around, who will be your fellow commuter? Will they be richer or poorer than they are today, more healthy or less, what language will they be speaking and will their ethnicity still be imprinted on their identity cards?

Obviously I don’t have any answers but like any other Singaporean, I have the freedom to imagine.

Some things, of course, will very likely be: the average person will be older, a lot older, as our low birth rates mean a rapidly ageing population, flats will be smaller as the population increases and pressure on land continues.

Most developments, however, aren’t as easy to predict but I’ve imagined a best and worst case scenario and here is what my crystal ball told me:

How many of us will there be? Best: 6-6.5 million. Not too many more than there are today. The island is crowded enough already with a resident population of 5.5 million (citizens are about 3 million).

There has been resistance to greater immigration and our transport infrastructure started to buckle when too many foreigners were added to the mix too fast.

Growth of less than 0.5 per cent a year would be optimal and while this slow increase won’t support rapid economic growth, it will lead to a well-integrated, stable nation ideally supported by improved welfare systems and a high quality of life.

Worst: 10 million. Spurred by immigration and the government’s determination to boost total GDP, the population could almost double. Remember that it more than doubled over the last 50 years, so this is perfectly possible.

This would certainly ease labour shortages and boost the economy but it would also lead to vast numbers of poorly assimilated immigrants, the fragmentation of the Singaporean identity and exacerbate our already woeful income inequality.

What will Singapore be like in the future? — Reuters pic

Will we be rich? Will we be poor? Well, we are already rich (as a nation) and with vast reserves, strong education and infrastructure there’s no reason to fear us descending to the dreaded Third World in any scenario. The question though is how will our wealth be distributed.

Best: Ideally, overall, we won’t be much richer but our wealth will be better distributed. So a per capita GDP of S$65,000-75,000 (RM202,000) with a GINI of nearer .30 than our current 0.46. Stronger social security — particularly for the elderly so that the kallangoni uncles and aunties selling tissues at the coffeeshop are the stuff of memories.

Worst: A GDP capita of S$120,000 plus with a GINI south of .50

Our top 10 per cent will be even richer than they are today with more labour and the rampant exploitation of our land. Foreign billionaires attracted by pro-wealth policies will skew things further while more and more ordinary Singaporeans end up scrapping it out with cheap imported foreign labour at the bottom the food chain.

Remember this isn’t just dystopian naysaying, Singapore is already an exceptionally unequal country — arguably the most unequal in the developed world.

Will we be Singaporeans — or Chinese, Malays, Indians and others? Best: A deeper sense of national identity will have developed. Based on our shared experiences and led by a younger generation free of past prejudices and freed from restrictive education policies that herd children into second language groups, we will see true Singaporeans who appreciate all our constituent cultures and creeds merge.

Worst: Race will be as prevalent as ever. Prey to divisive policies, we will continue to view other groups with suspicion and only limited understanding.

We’ll see a Chinese population enmeshed in the culture of the mainland, a Malay population influenced by their radicalised neighbours and a deracinated but unassimilated Indian population — all ghettoised.

Of course, wealthy expats from all over the world will lord it over us.

The reality is that Singaporeans today remain pitifully divided — just do an eyeball test: go outside and look for mixed race groups of friends or couples — if what we see now is an indication of the future, then on this front it’s bleak.

Will there still be hawker food? Best: Incentives and rent control for hawkers — with new centres and thoughtful spaces in new HDB blocks, tax breaks, training and credit which will give the next generation an incentive to stay in the business.

With a more equal distribution of income, people will be able to pay a few dollars more for hawker meals making it easier to earn a fair wage.

Worst: Increasing rents and falling disposable incomes among heartland consumers will see hawkers slowly die out.

Rampant immigration will push Singaporeans out of hawker centres so our dishes will be made without their original flavour. Fast food restaurants will proliferate and our national classics will be confined to "Asian bistros” and "gastro-bars.”

Absolute worst: Laksa cocktails will be more common than laksa — a truly terrifying fate…

Fortunately my crystal ball is as innacurate as everyone else’s — no one can really predict the future, but the choices we make today could lead us to relative Utopia or a truly sorry state of affairs….

So, choose wisely everyone — imagine the best future you can and work for it or it’ll be laksa cocktails for us all.

* This is the personal opinion of the columnist.