FEB 15 — It is an undeniable fact that Khalid Ibrahim is immensely popular in Selangor. Khalid’s unimpeachable integrity, talent for financial management, and humble no-nonsense manner allowed him to return Pakatan Rakyat to power in Selangor with a two-thirds majority in 2013.

Despite lacking the charismatic flair of other politicians, the affable Khalid has been able to transmit his character to the Selangor voter.

His policies have focused on financial restructuring to boost the state coffers and redistributionist welfare policies to cycle some of those finances back to Selangor’s needy. However, there is concern that if the state finances accumulated thus far are not spent constructively they could provide an undeserved windfall to Umno should the state be seized back by them.

It is well known that whilst being an excellent administrator, Khalid is not so skilled in the cut and thrust of political manoeuvre. The resoluteness that underpins his integrity sometimes translates into a lack of openness to other stances, despite principled compromise being an important part of politics.

It has been reported now and again that Khalid has stood firm against pressure to distribute contracts to people simply because they are affiliated with the party. This is a good thing in my view and sets a benchmark for all current and future government in Selangor and Malaysia that merit matters.

It is also well known that Khalid and PKR Vice-President Azmin Ali do not see eye-to-eye. Their disagreement has spilled over into the public more than once with the most recent incident being the non-reappointment of Azmin to the board of Selangor’s state development body PKNS. That particular move was rather blunt.

Azmin’s ambition for the Menteri Besar post is well reported, however he lacks the public appeal that Khalid holds. Azmin also voiced strong criticism of the pay rise for state assemblymen tabled by Khalid, although the Bill was supported unanimously in the house.

As Selangor PKR chairman and a vice-president in the party, Azmin leads a considerable faction within PKR. Khalid on the other lacks a party position, and while he enjoys the support of those not in Azmin’s faction, he lacks a clear power base within the party although he has enjoyed support from the leadership.

Poor communication between the Menteri Besar’s office and the party has also been a source of disappointment within PKR. Khalid’s lack of political investment appears to be costing him. Were Khalid as skilled politically as he is financially his position would be unassailable.

Greater political dexterity would have served Khalid well in fending off Umno’s various attempts to destabilise Pakatan Rakyat in Selangor. This appears to have been noted with concern by party strategists.

There has also been disappointment that in the matter of water negotiations the initiative seems to have returned to the federal government.

The rumblings around the “Kajang move” suggest that a significant degree of doubt has developed within PKR’s leadership concerning Khalid’s ability to deliver decisive political direction to Selangor. However, the reluctance of Anwar and Rafizi to make an outright declaration of leadership change in Selangor has clear political reasons.

The problems PKR faces if Khalid is to be replaced as Menteri Besar are manifold: 1) he is very popular with the public, a fact not always recognised by his critics within the party; 2) the reasons for some party members’ dissatisfaction with Khalid’s political performance are not well known amongst the public, in part because the party has largely declined to air its troubles in public; 3) decorum dictates that Khalid be shown the respect due to his position, achievements, and popularity; 4) Khalid’s financial performance needs to be equalled or exceeded, while this does not mean that savings must be equivalent, any spending must be prudent; 5) consensus amongst Pakatan component parties is desirable; and, 6) party leadership do not wish to give the impression that they are overtly forcing the hand of the Selangor palace.

It is possible, though it now seems unlikely, that Khalid could remain as Menteri Besar and Anwar could serve as a senior exco, or take on the position of Deputy Menteri Besar (provided for in Articles 51(1A) and 53(2)c of the Selangor State Constitution) to exercise powers equivalent to the Menteri Besar.

The last person to fill the post of Deputy Menteri Besar was Rahmad Musa during the Khir Toyo administration. Pakatan Rakyat has not chosen to advise HRH the Sultan to appoint a deputy menteri besar since taking over Selangor in 2008.

Equally, Khalid could take the deputy menteri besar position and continue to exercise his financial expertise, though this would likely be interpreted as a demotion or loss of face for a popular man deserving of honour and respect. Should Khalid have to exit, his status merits a “horizontal” or vertical promotion, unless he himself is inclined to retire.

Working against the option of Anwar as deputy menteri besar is Anwar’s political seniority versus Khalid’s. Going for less than the MB position would suggest that Anwar lacks confidence in both his popularity and his ability to govern a state, let alone the nation. This would not recommend him as a candidate for prime minister.

Although a vote for Pakatan Rakyat cannot be simplistically interpreted as a vote for Anwar, he is nonetheless the man who led the coalition to win over 51 per cent of the national vote.

Consolidation: Menteri Besar and party president?

It appears that Anwar has decided or been persuaded that the “Kajang move” will allow him to reinvigorate Pakatan’s politics in Selangor and nationally, as well as consolidate leadership in PKR.

Whilst a number of critics or sceptics have preferred to see the motivation behind the “Kajang move” as singular, in my view there have always been multiple motivations. Paying the price of Khalid’s captaincy of Selangor is only justifiable if there are a number of other benefits for the Pakatan supporter.

Despite the rivalry between Azmin and Khalid over the MB position the introduction of Anwar as a likely candidate appears to have been accepted by both. I have personally observed Anwar and Khalid together since the move was unveiled and I detected no tension between them.

The relative compliance of Khalid and Azmin suggests some internal compromise or accommodation has been reached. It may be that the promise of more decisive leadership was sufficient to placate Azmin, perhaps he will feature in a new exco line-up, it all remains to be seen. If Azmin is indeed keen to prove his leadership skills then perhaps he should be given the chance to prove his worth. Someone with a power base and ambition will only become restless if not charged with greater responsibilities.

The conflict between Khalid and Azmin in Selangor was reaching a point where it was spilling out into public. It is good that this appears to have been resolved as continued spats could damage Pakatan’s credibility.

The Khalid-Azmin split was also reflective of a divide within PKR that was haunting the impending party elections in April. There has been considerable trepidation about who would contend for the presidency given Wan Azizah Wan Ismail’s desire to not contest. Azmin was a clear contender but his appeal does not cut across the party let alone the public.

It appears that the resolution of the Selangor leadership question has opened the way for Anwar to finally step out of his “de facto leader” position as Ketua Umum and go for the presidency himself. Anwar enjoys support across the party and is its most compelling unifying figure.

It is good for Anwar to put PKR in order. We have only to look at Umno to see the consequences of factional rivalries paralysing the momentum of national leadership. Najib’s reform agenda has gone nowhere, largely due to his inability to resolve factional challenges. Najib’s uncertain authority before and after the 2013 General Elections has led to the PM being mostly silent or weak on pressing national issues such as inter-religious provocation.

If Anwar and Pakatan are serious about winning Putrajaya then consolidation of leadership within PKR will produce a more unified party that can better wage its political battles. This will improve confidence amongst Pakatan supporters.

The menteri besar position will also be beneficial for Anwar and Pakatan’s bid for Putrajaya. It has been over 15 years since Anwar has held government office. There is an entire generation of voters who have no memory of Anwar as a public servant. This is a good and bad thing given that his policy positions have matured in a more progressive direction since he left Umno. There is an older generation of voters who still remember Anwar’s time in BN and this continues to cloud their judgement of him despite his efforts to move beyond ethnic and religious politics towards a more inclusive agenda.

The youth vote, those aged between 21 and 30 years old, will be crucial in the next elections. A five per cent swing in the Malay vote will be decisive, and Umno’s support from ethnic Malays is lowest in the 21-30 year old group, at around 54 per cent. There is everything to gain from the new generation of voters.

Should Anwar become Menteri Besar of Selangor he will have an opportunity to establish a concrete reputation for governance with youth and other demographic groups, especially rural Malays.

The menteri besar position also brings with it greater media attention and scrutiny. Media coverage has always been a problem for the Opposition, though this has improved with the rise of alternative online media. However, aside from the reports on his various legal cases Anwar has not captured as much positive media coverage as some of the younger leaders within PKR. His profile needs a stronger platform and the statements of a menteri besar get carried even in the BN-controlled mainstream media.

Wong Chin-Huat has pointed out that governing a sub-national state is a common stepping stone to national leadership around the world. It is also true of Malaysia. Our current prime minister and deputy prime minister were both chief ministers of states at one point.

Although Anwar could certainly continue to exercise statesmanship from his current national position it is rapidly becoming clear that mere statements are insufficient to counter the new religious politics of the right. Actions and initiatives need to be launched to demonstrate the distinctiveness of the Pakatan policy platform and it is to Pakatan’s advantage to have it directly associated with its leader.

If they embark on a fresh policy direction in Selangor, Anwar and PKR cannot afford to forget the fact that Khalid Ibrahim is immensely popular for good reason. Bold political initiatives will need to be matched by an astute economic policy.

Countering the new religious politics

With the forthcoming Kajang by-election, the Pakatan Rakyat candidate and leader, Anwar Ibrahim has placed countering the new religious politics front and centre of his agenda.

As is ever the case with Anwar there are quarters that doubt his motivations. The numerous and complex factors that have been cited as influences in the “Kajang move” have contributed to a lack of certainty amongst observers.

In actual fact, Anwar has no choice if he is serious about taking Putrajaya. He absolutely must face down the new religious politics that has taken hold of a significant segment of the Malay population.

The erroneous belief that Christians are trying to encroach on the Muslim faithful, and are doing so with Pakatan Rakyat as their Trojan Horse is a pernicious lie, but for some it has been sufficient reason to continue voting for Umno.

As I mentioned earlier, a mere 5 per cent swing in the Malay vote remains sufficient to decide who will hold Putrajaya. Disabusing a segment of fence-sitting voters of their false notions will require a dedicated platform of outreach, counter-propaganda, campaigners, and, above all, inspiring and decisive leadership.

The menteri besar position will give Anwar the resources, platform and profile to tackle this issue. Rafizi has made the reasonable assumption that ethnically and religiously divisive attacks will continue to be targeted in Selangor (as they will in Penang) precisely to undermine Pakatan Rakyat.

Being a member of the Selangor State Assembly will give Anwar the political legitimacy to speak and act on matters within the state. Umno’s influential right-wing appears bent on taking Malaysian politics down a more conflictual path.

Pakatan’s supporters are typically those who support a more inclusive multicultural Malaysia. The coalition, and its leader, has a responsibility to its voters to stand firm against ethnic and religious provocation. If they and he fail to do so then the next general election is theirs to lose.

* This is the personal opinion of the columnist.