KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 26 — Southern Africa and Southeast Asia are expected to face the sharpest rise in drought, heat and power risks following the 2026-2027 El Niño, according to a report by BMI, a Fitch Solutions company. 

It said the El Niño weather phenomenon is likely to raise drought risk to cropland most in Southern Africa, Central America, northern South America and South-east Asia, threatening maize, rice, sugar, palm oil and coffee output.

“In past El Niños, the share of cropland exposed to high-intensity drought rose by 11-12 percentage points on average across these regions, with Zambia, Zimbabwe, Central America’s Dry Corridor, the Philippines, Thailand, Guyana and Suriname among the hardest hit. 

“In South-east Asia, drought puts rice, Thai sugar, Indonesian and Malaysian palm oil and Vietnamese robusta at risk, and the region faces the largest population impact, with around 90 million more people exposed to drought on average in past events,” it said in a statement today. 

Meanwhile, BMI said El Niño poses the greatest drought risk to hydropower in Southern Africa, followed by Mexico and Central America, mirroring the pattern for agriculture.

“In previous El Niños, the share of hydropower capacity exposed to high-intensity drought rose by around 19 percentage points on average in Southern Africa, led by Zambia and Zimbabwe, and by around 12 points in Mexico and Central America.

“South-east Asia, the Caribbean and northern South America also face higher risk, with the Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia, the Dominican Republic, Venezuela and Colombia most exposed,” it said. 

BMI said power shortages are most likely where hydropower dominates the electricity mix, with Zambia and Zimbabwe facing the highest risk of load-shedding, costly imports and pressure on utility finances this season.

“Mexico, Thailand, the Philippines, Malaysia, South Africa and Indonesia face large exposure increases but rely on hydropower for less than 20 per cent of generation, so impacts are more likely to show up as peak-power constraints than as system-wide shortages,” it said. — Bernama