Money
Currencies tread water as easing oil prices calm markets ahead of key central bank meetings
South Korean won, Chinese yuan and Japanese yen notes are seen on US 100 dollar notes in this picture illustration taken in Seoul December 15, 2015. — Reuters pic
  • Dollar index edges up in calmer trading
  • Central banks set to hold interest rates amid MidEast conflict
  • Traders look for comments on inflation and outlook 

TOKYO, March 18 — The US dollar inched higher today as easing crude oil prices steadied currency markets ahead of a series of central bank meetings.

The greenback was little changed against the British pound and Japanese yen, which pulled back from levels where traders had braced for possible intervention by Tokyo ahead of a meeting in Washington between US President Donald Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.

It was slightly firmer against the euro, which dipped after two sessions of gains as traders awaited the start of a two-day European Central Bank meeting.

Central banks seen on hold

The dollar has strengthened overall since the US and Israel attacked Iran almost three weeks ago, reaching a 10-month high late last week as the conflict and rising oil prices drove investors into safe-haven US assets.

With no sign of de-escalation, Brent futures prices have settled above US$100 (RM391) a barrel for four consecutive sessions, though prices dipped today after Iraqi and Kurdish authorities agreed to resume oil exports via Turkey’s Ceyhan port.

Global stocks rose for a third day as steadier energy prices offered some relief.

“With the rise in crude oil prices appearing to ⁠pause for the moment, it’s not as though conditions have ⁠improved dramatically, but for now, markets across the board seem to be recovering somewhat,” ⁠said Hirofumi Suzuki, chief foreign exchange strategist ⁠at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking ⁠Corp.

“In the case of USD/JPY, you could say it has moved a bit in the direction of yen strength.”

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major peers, edged up 0.1 per cent to 99.61. The euro was down 0.1 per cent ⁠at US$1.153.

Sterling was little changed at US$1.335, as was the yen at 158.95 per dollar.

Japan’s prime minister is due to depart today for her meeting with Trump. Besides the US-Israeli war with Iran, Takaichi is likely to discuss a second round of Japanese investment in the US as part of tariff deals.

The US Federal Reserve will announce its policy decision today, with the ECB, Bank of England and Bank of Japan following a day later.

They are ⁠all widely expected to maintain interest rates but traders will look for clues on where borrowing costs are heading amid a potential inflationary shock from the Middle East war.

Money markets broadly expect the ⁠Fed to cut rates once this year, compared with the two reductions priced in before the conflict.

“The focus will very much ⁠be on ⁠the potential implications on inflation stemming from the conflict in the Middle East,” Derek Halpenny, a senior currency analyst at MUFG, said of the Fed’s decision.

Yet he added: “We would be surprised to see any big rates or FX moves this evening given the likelihood of a balanced communication with no strong signals.”

The ECB is expected to raise interest rates in 2026, reversing expectations in February for the possibility of a further cut. — Reuters

 

 

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