KUALA LUMPUR, May 14 ― Hong Leong Investment Bank Bhd (HLIB) has revised Malaysia’s first quarter of 2024 (1Q 2024) gross domestic product (GDP) growth estimate slightly upward to +3.9 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y).

This projection matches the Department of Statistics Malaysia’s (DoSM) advance estimate and consensus median forecast, the bank said in a research note today.

"Following this, we maintain our 2024 GDP growth forecast at +4.8 per cent y-o-y, pending the release of full 1Q 2024 GDP print, on the back of supportive domestic demand and recovery in global trade activity,” it said.

HLIB stated that growth is expected to be driven by stronger performances across most sectors, particularly the services, manufacturing and construction sectors while the agriculture sector moderates.

On the demand side, it said growth is anticipated to be primarily led by private consumption and the recovery in export activity.

"The introduction of a flexible Employees Provident Fund (EPF) account starting in May 2024 and salary increase for civil servants in December 2024 are also expected to lift private consumption further, though the extent may be neutralised subject to pending subsidy reforms,” its research arm viewed.

Meanwhile, Maybank Investment Bank Bhd pointed out that 1Q 2024 saw a firmer performance for the Industrial Production Index, Index of Services, Construction Works Value and Crude Palm Oil output.

Hence, it said that 1Q 2024 GDP is anticipated to grow +4.2 per cent y-o-y based on these indicators.

"Our 1Q 2024 real GDP growth estimate is based on projections of faster actual versus advance estimate growth for services,” it added.

Actual 1Q 2024 GDP figures will be released on May 17, 2024. ― Bernama