SINGAPORE, Jan 17 — Singapore’s exports in December rose more than expected for a second consecutive month as shipments to China jumped in a tentative sign of recovery for the crucial external trade sector.

Non-oil domestic exports (NODX) rose 9.4 per cent last month from a year earlier, the trade agency International Enterprise Singapore said in a statement today.

The median forecast in a Reuters poll was a rise of 5.8 per cent from a year earlier.

The strong December figures were helped by a 33.5 per cent year-on-year jump in shipments to China, the city state’s major export market.

It comes after a surprise 11.5 per cent jump in exports in November, which were driven by a sharp rise in shipments of pharmaceuticals and overall increases in sales to the European Union and China.

"Despite improvement in the economic conditions, trade policy from US is a great uncertainty and also China’s own domestic reform could affect medium growth. But the worst of the exports cycle is already behind us”, said Irvin Seah, economist at DBS bank.

On a month-on-month, seasonally adjusted basis, exports rose 1.0 per cent in December. The median forecast in the Reuters survey was a fall of 5.5 per cent.

Singapore’s economy has been on the ropes in the last two years with growth slipping to a seven-year low 1.8 per cent in 2016, as exports fell away amid slow world growth. A small minority of analysts say a weak growth outlook could force the central bank to ease at its next review in April 2017 after it kept its exchange-rate based policy unchanged in October.

Indeed, there is heightened uncertainty around the outlook for international trade as policymakers and investors wait to see if US President-elect Donald Trump carries through on his protectionist threats when he takes office on Jan. 20.

"This recent strong print (in exports data) might be in a nascent stage, and could actually be dampened by geopolitical tensions as well as the rise in protectionism,” said Weiwen Ng, and economist for ANZ.

In December, exports to the US fell sharply by 16.4 per cent from a year earlier, while those to the European Union also fell 4.8 per cent after a sharp 48.1 per cent jump in November.

The Singapore government’s advance estimate of fourth-quarter gross domestic product released in early January showed the economy posted surprisingly strong growth at the end of 2016, but many economists see the risk of a further slowdown this year. — Reuters