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Economists trim 2017 Singapore growth forecast in survey
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) building in Singapore February 21, 2013 file photo. Possibility of monetary policy easing at scheduled policy review in April rising, analysts say, owing to weak economic data. REUTERS/Edgar Su

SINGAPORE, Sept 7 — Economists trimmed their forecasts for Singapore's growth in the third quarter and for next year while keeping their expectations for 2016 growth unchanged, a central bank survey showed today.

The median forecast of 22 economists surveyed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) was for gross domestic product (GDP) to grow 1.8 per cent in 2017, down from 2.1 per cent in the previous survey published in June.

The median forecast for GDP growth in 2016 was unchanged at 1.8 per cent. That would mark a slowdown from 2.0 per cent in 2015 as stubbornly sluggish global demand weighs on the trade-reliant economy.

Third-quarter GDP growth was expected to slow to 1.7 per cent on a year-on-year basis, according to the median forecast in the MAS survey, down slightly from 1.8 per cent previously.

That would mark a slowdown from 2.1 per cent year-on-year growth in the second quarter, when the economy grew 0.3 per cent from the previous three months on an annualised and seasonally adjusted basis.

In August, the government revised its 2016 economic growth forecast to 1-2 per cent from 1-3 per cent previously, on concerns over Brexit and weakening global demand.

According to the latest MAS survey, economists slightly lowered their forecasts on the all-items consumer price index (CPI), but raised their forecasts for core inflation.

The headline consumer inflation rate was seen at -0.5 per cent year-on-year in 2016, down from -0.4 per cent in the June survey.

Core inflation, the focus of the central bank's monetary policy, was expected to come in at 1.0 per cent in 2016, up from 0.8 per cent in the previous central bank survey.

The central bank's current forecast is for core inflation to average around 1.0 percent in 2016 while CPI-all items inflation is forecast to come in at -1.0 to 0.0 per cent.

Economists expect the Singapore dollar to trade at S$1.38 against the US dollar at end-2016. It was trading at around S$1.3475 today. — Reuters

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