SINGAPORE, April 8 — Emerging-market stocks headed for their worst week since mid February and currencies slumped as concern that global growth is slowing curbed demand for riskier assets.
China shares in Shanghai fell for a third day, the longest losing streak since January, and sovereign bonds were set for their biggest weekly decline in more than two months as signs of an improving economy reduced the chances of further stimulus. Brazil’s real and South Africa’s rand depreciated the most this week among emerging currencies.
Developing-nation assets are retreating after jumping in March by the most since at least 2009 as investors questioned the strength of the rally amid increasing risk. International Monetary Fund managing director Christine Lagarde said yesterday the lender is likely to lower its outlook for world growth, and minutes of the Federal Reserve’s March meeting released a day earlier flagged heightened global risks. The World Trade Organisation slashed its trade growth forecast for 2016, citing a steep decline in China’s economy.
“Despite some spots of stabilisation in China, we’ve seen some rather downbeat forecasts from the WTO,” said Vishnu Varathan, a Singapore-based economist at Mizuho Bank Ltd. “Oil is very weak. All these are going to factor as negatives for emerging markets.”
Stocks
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose 0.2 per cent today, reversing a loss, and was down 1.8 per cent for the week as of 8:44am. in London. Its five-day drop is the biggest since the period ended February 12, with nine of its 10 industry groups retreating. The gauge jumped 13 per cent in March, the most since May 2009.
Energy companies have fallen 1.3 per cent this week even as oil rebounded, and raw material-related shares dropped 1.8 per cent. While Brent crude is up 4.3 per cent from April 1, it’s still 27 per cent lower than a year ago.
The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.8 per cent and was poised for its first weekly loss in a month. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index of mainland shares traded in Hong Kong slid for a fifth day after entering a bull market last week. Equity gauges in Indonesia and Malaysia fell 0.5 per cent each today, while those in Taiwan, Thailand and Sri Lanka rose at least 0.6 per cent.
Benchmarks in Dubai and Qatar gained more than 1 per cent, while those in Turkey and the Czech republic climbed at least 0.5 per cent.
Currencies
The real slumped 3.7 per cent over the past four days as Brazil’s central bank extended its effort to weaken the currency after a 10 per cent first-quarter rally, and Malaysia’s ringgit weakened 0.4 per cent. MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index was up 0.1 per cent today and is down 0.6 for the week. The measure surged 5.2 per cent in March, the most since records began in 1999.
“Now may not be the best time to go jumping into EM currencies,” said Manpreet Gill, the Singapore-based head of fixed income, currency and commodities strategy at Standard Chartered Plc. “The next few weeks will be more of a breather and we’re not too keen to chase the rally. We need more evidence that the bad economic news have peaked.”
The rand led advances today, jumping 1.2 per cent, which helped pare its five-day drop to 2.6 per cent. Russia’s rouble was up 1.2 per cent from yesterday and Mexico’s peso strengthened 0.6 per cent, while China’s yuan, South Korea’s won and Taiwan’s dollar weakened.
Bonds
Domestic bonds of developing nations have so far lost 0.2 per cent this week, the most since early December, a JPMorgan Chase & Co index shows. That outpaced the 0.05 per cent drop on their dollar debt.
The yield on Chinese government notes due January 2026 climbed six basis points this week to 2.90 per cent. That’s the biggest increase in a similar-maturity benchmark yield since the end of January, data from the ChinaBond clearing house show.
Ten-year yields increased six basis points to 3.83 per cent in Malaysia this week, and rose three basis points to 1.64 per cent in Thailand. Similar bonds in India rose in the period, sending yields lower by two basis point to 7.45 per cent. — Bloomberg
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