JAKARTA, Feb 4 — Indonesia's economy is expected to have picked up modest speed in the final three months of 2015, but weak consumption, investment and exports are seen pushing full year growth to their weakest pace since the global financial crisis.

Southeast Asia's largest economy has been hobbled by a collapse in prices for its main commodities and cooling growth in major trading partner China, which have rippled across key areas including government revenue, private consumption and investment.

On top of that, the slow pace of reforms and confused policy have pushed back President Joko Widodo's ambitious agenda to achieve an average economic growth rate of 7 per cent during his 5-year term ending in 2019.

A Reuters poll of economists expected 2015 growth at 4.75 per cent, almost a full per centage point lower than Widodo's growth target for the year. That compares with 2014's 5.02 per cent - the fifth straight year of slowing growth - and marked the weakest expansion since 2009.

The poll also put gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the final quarter of 2015 at 4.8 per cent, up from 4.73 per cent in the third quarter.

But that small fourth quarter uptick was "no sign of improvement", said Capital Economics in a note to clients.

Indonesia and its emerging market peers around the world have been hit hard by China's slowing economy and a general slackening in global demand.

A recent survey showed manufacturing activity in Indonesia remained in contraction all through January, while weak exports in 2015 capped a disappointing year for corporate profits. Sales of cars and motorcycles, indicators of domestic consumption, also continued to decline on a yearly basis.

But a moderate recovery in growth was on the cards.

The median among all ten economists who gave forecasts for this year was for GDP growth of 5.1 per cent in 2016.

"Expectations are high that the government can do better on fiscal spending this year," said Gundy Cahyadi, DBS' economist in Singapore, citing a reorganization within government agencies to tackle spending and investment bottlenecks that contributed to slow growth last year.

The central bank is also doing its part to spur growth. Last month it cut its benchmark policy rate by 25 basis points to 7.25 per cent - the first rate cut in 11 months that signalled the start of an easing cycle.

"Further monetary easing will keep real borrowing rates down, which will be crucial in aiding weak domestic demand amid this cyclical downturn," said Su Sian Lim, an economist with HSBC. — Reuters