SYDNEY, Dec 14 — The dollar, euro and yen got off to a sedate start today following a relatively uneventful weekend, but encouraging Chinese data put a small spring in the Aussie’s step.
The one major move was the South African rand, which was quoted 5 per cent higher after President Jacob Zuma restored Pravin Gordhan as finance minister in a sudden U-turn.
Data on Saturday showed factory output growth in China accelerated to a five-month high in November, while retail sales expanded at an annual 11.2 per cent pace - the strongest this year.
So while the dollar, euro and yen were little changed from late New York levels, the Australian dollar — often used as a liquid proxy for China plays - opened about 20 pips higher.
It was last flirting with 72 US cents, having been as high as US$0.7218 (RM3.13).
The dollar fetched 121.17 yen and the euro bought 133.03 yen.
Against the greenback, the common currency stayed near the US$1.1000 level, having gained 3.7 per cent in the past two weeks.
The euro has been swept higher by a vicious short squeeze after the European Central Bank fell short of delivering the aggressive easing measures that many had expected at its Dec. 3 meeting.
The Federal Reserve’s Dec. 15-16 policy review is next, but the focus is not on whether the central bank will raise interest rates — a move that is already priced in — but how quickly it will try to normalise monetary policy.
“The focus now is on the rate hike path, as the market outlook remains divergent from FOMC projections,” analysts at Barclays wrote in a note to clients, using the acronym for the Fed’s policymaking Federal Open Market Committee.
“We expect a 25-basis-point rate hike this week, followed by three hikes next year, bringing the target range for the fed funds rate to 1.00-1.25 per cent by end-2016,” the note said.
The market is also keeping an eye on the Chinese currency after Beijing surprised some by shifting the way it values the yuan, or renminbi, towards a trade-weighted basis from the US dollar.
China late on Friday launched a new trade-weighted yuan exchange rate index, saying it was to discourage investors from exclusively tracking the currency’s fluctuations against the greenback.
“While some will see this as cover for currency devaluation, we suspect the goal is to keep the renminbi’s value broadly stable rather than be compelled to have it follow the dollar higher, as it has over the past couple of years,” said Mark Williams, chief Asia economist at Capital Economics.
“But the haphazard way in which information is dribbling out is doing nothing to generate confidence.”
The yuan closed at its lowest level in over four years on Friday. All eyes will be today’s fix.
The Bank of Japan’s quarterly tankan business sentiment survey is due later in the morning, slim pickings in a week where the Fed is front and centre. — Reuters
You May Also Like