KUALA LUMPUR, Jan 9 — Malaysia’s foreign-exchange reserves dropped to the lowest level since March 2011, a sign the central bank may have intervened to stem a slide in Southeast Asia’s worst- performing currency.
The ringgit fell 1.1 per cent this week to 3.5550 a dollar as of 11.32am in Kuala Lumpur, the biggest loss in Asia, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The currency has weakened 10 per cent since June and reached a five-year low of 3.5862 on January 7. Reserves declined 7.7 per cent to US$116 billion (RM414.29 billion) in December from November, Bank Negara Malaysia reported late yesterday.
A slide in global crude prices has put pressure on the ringgit, posing a revenue risk for oil-exporting Malaysia, which is seeking to lower the fiscal deficit to 3 per cent of gross domestic product in 2015 from 3.5 per cent. While the fall in reserves could be the result of revaluations in the central bank’s currency basket, it also indicates policy makers may have intervened, according to Macquarie Bank Ltd.
“The ringgit’s performance next week will be dictated by the direction of crude oil prices and dollar strength,” said Nizam Idris, Singapore-based head of foreign exchange and fixed- income strategy at Macquarie. “The fall in reserves is much bigger than just revaluation adjustments.”
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the greenback against 10 major counterparts, rose 0.4 per cent this week to its highest level since inception in 2004. The gauge fell today, which spurred gains in Asian currencies, Idris said. The ringgit climbed 0.3 per cent.
Factory output
Malaysia’s foreign reserves were supported by a bigger current-account surplus and foreign direct investment inflows in 2014, Bank Negara said in a statement yesterday. The holdings can finance 8.4 months of retained imports and are 1.1 times the short-term external debt, it said.
“The reserves are expected to remain ample in 2015, supported by trade and investment inflows,” the central bank statement said.
The nation’s trade balance climbed to RM11.1 billion (US$3.1 billion) in November, the biggest since October 2011, a report showed this week. That was more than a predicted RM4.1 billion and the revised RM1.2 billion the previous month.
A report due at noon today may show factory output rose 4.7 per cent in November from a year earlier, according to the median forecast of economists in a Bloomberg survey. That would be down from 5 per cent in October.
The yield on Malaysia’s 4.181 per cent sovereign bonds due July 2024 fell four basis points, or 0.04 per centage point, to 4.17 per cent today, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The rate increased one basis point this week. — Bloomberg
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