NEW YORK, June 7 — Following are five big themes likely to dominate thinking of investors and traders in the coming week and the Reuters stories related to them.
1. ‘We aren't finished here’
If, as European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi said after unveiling a package of interest rate cuts, cash injections and other measures designed to ward off deflation and bolster growth, “We are not finished here,” how much more is there to come? The markets will ponder that inevitable question until the full impact of the ECB's actions are clear, which may not be for a year or more. Any hint of crisis in the euro zone and markets will be asking, “If not here, where?”
* Facing barriers, Draghi will keep market waiting for any more ECB action
* Weidmann says ECB cut rates only after tough wrangling
2. Capitalising on demand
Euro zone governments are set to capitalise on an ECB-inspired surge in demand with a series of debt sales next week. Spain is gearing up to launch a new 10-year bond via syndication, IFR reports, with yields having hit fresh record lows after the ECB unveiled a package of new stimulus measures on Thursday. Italy, too, is scheduled to auction new medium- to- long-term bonds. With investors prepared to pay the highest premiums for German debt over Treasuries seen in seven years, a two-year German Schatz auction will also be closely watched.
* Euro zone government bond auctions in coming week
* ECB stimulus sends peripheral euro zone bond yields to record lows
3. Let's split
A solid pace of hiring by US employers in May will keep the Fed on the path of gradually reducing its monthly bond buying. After the ECB's rate cuts and other easing measures, it emphasises the yawning gap between the interest rate paths of the world's two main central banks. US and euro zone bond yields have moved pretty much in lock-step for the past three years but the premium two-year US T-notes offer over equivalent German debt hit its widest for seven years in recent days. A slight steepening of the German yield curve might suggest investors see the ECB's actions eventually delivering inflation but for now European outperformance looks likely to continue.
* Exploiting the ECB-Fed policy gap
* US 3-year note sale June 10, 10-year June 11, 30-year June 12
* US May retail sales due June 12
4. Euro for cash and carry
In the week the ECB cut interest rates and pledged more economic stimulus, the euro has barely budged against the dollar. But the smart money is not looking to play euro weakness against the dollar. Instead investors are targeting the euro crosses. The ECB's measures could push real yields in the euro zone lower and encourage investors and speculators to start borrowing in the euro and selling it against higher-yielding currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars, or currencies where markets expect rate hikes, such as the pound and the Norwegian crown.
* ECB easing creates new world for euro zone border currencies
* Sterling set for more gains vs euro on diverging rate paths
5. Data points
Chinese data will be watched nervously after recent activity reports raised concerns among those who thought the world's second-largest economy had steadied after a rocky start to the year. Other eye-catching releases include UK unemployment. Central banks taking rate decisions in the coming week include those of New Zealand, South Korea, Indonesia, Chile and Japan.
* China May trade data June 8, May inflation June 10, May industrial output, retail sales June 13
* UK May claimant count unemployment June 11
* New Zealand, South Korea, Chile, Indonesia rate decisions June 12, Japan June 13
* China confident it has done enough to keep growth above 7 per cent
* China May HSBC services PMI eases to 4-month low of 50.7 — Reuters
You May Also Like