KUALA LUMPUR, Sept 23 — The last time Melaka went to the polls, voters masked up, kept their distance in queues at polling stations and regularly sanitised their hands.

Five years on, the Covid-19 restrictions are gone, but shifting political tides and fluid alliances are set to shape another closely watched state election.

Melaka, traditionally a Barisan Nasional (BN) stronghold, fell to Pakatan Harapan (PH) for the first time in 2018 before BN wrested the state back with a two-thirds majority in the 2021 state election.

BN won 21 seats in the 28-seat state assembly in 2021, while PH secured five and Perikatan Nasional (PN) two.

The assembly’s composition subsequently changed after Rembia assemblyman Datuk Muhammad Jailani Khamis left BN for PAS, reducing BN’s representation to 20 seats. Bemban assemblyman Dr Mohd Yadzil Yaakub was also expelled from Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia and became an Independent while remaining in the Opposition bloc.

Following the formation of the unity government at the federal level in 2022, the five PH assemblymen — four from DAP and one from Amanah — joined the BN-led Melaka administration in 2023.

Chief Minister Datuk Seri Ab Rauf Yusoh announced yesterday that the state assembly would be dissolved today after receiving the consent of Melaka Governor Tun Mohd Ali Rustam, paving the way for the state’s 16th election. The assembly’s term had been due to expire on December 27.

Key players and the big battles

The election will be a significant test of Ab Rauf’s leadership. A first-term assemblyman, he became chief minister in March 2023 after his predecessor Datuk Seri Sulaiman Md Ali stepped down.

Ab Rauf is widely expected to defend his Tanjung Bidara seat for a second term.

Another high-profile contender is Umno Youth chief and Merlimau assemblyman Datuk Dr Muhamad Akmal Saleh.

Akmal, an outspoken critic of DAP, tendered his resignation from the state executive council in January amid tensions over Umno’s cooperation with DAP and the unity government, but Ab Rauf rejected his resignation in April.

On PH’s side, the state’s sole Amanah representative, Adly Zahari, would be among the coalition’s most senior figures contesting the Melaka polls if he defends his Bukit Katil seat.

Adly, a former Melaka chief minister and currently the deputy defence minister, initially remained seated with the government bloc after his four DAP colleagues moved to the Opposition benches in July.

Melaka PH subsequently confirmed that all five of its assemblymen would withdraw from the state administration after the coalition opposed amendments to the state constitution allowing the appointment of nominated assemblymen.

The amendment allows for the appointment of up to seven nominated assemblymen, a measure opposed by all five PH representatives.

Two-thirds unlikely without allies

Pacific Research Centre of Malaysia principal adviser Oh Ei Sun expects BN to retain Melaka by a simple majority but said it would require an alliance with PN to reach a two-thirds majority.

BN enters the election after returning to power in Negeri Sembilan through an electoral understanding with PN.

The results reflected BN’s willingness to tailor its electoral strategy to different political terrains.

In Johor, BN contested all 56 state seats without an electoral alliance and went on to form the state government on its own.

In Negeri Sembilan, however, BN and PN reached an electoral understanding aimed at avoiding contests against one another despite BN remaining part of the PH-led federal government.

Whether a similar arrangement will be replicated in Melaka remains unsettled.

BN has indicated that negotiations with potential partners would take place following the dissolution of the state assembly, while Melaka PH has also been in discussions with Bersatu over a possible “PH Plus” arrangement.

Political analyst Datuk Sivamurugan Pandian from Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM) said a BN-PN arrangement could consolidate the Malay vote in Melaka, making it more difficult for PH to make significant gains.

PH has suffered consecutive setbacks in recent state elections, and Sivamurugan said rebuilding confidence among Malay voters and giving greater prominence to local issues would be crucial if the coalition hoped to reverse its fortunes.

“PH has to acknowledge that Johor and Negeri Sembilan were not isolated defeats but are signals of changing voter behaviour,” Sivamurugan said.

Both Sivamurugan and Oh, however, said even a commanding BN victory in Melaka would be unlikely to trigger an early general election.

“The general election is at most about a year away, not two or three years away.

“So, it [forcing a snap election] wouldn’t make much difference,” Oh said, adding that BN chairman Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi’s relationship with Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim would also make it less likely that the federal government would be brought down before the end of its term.