KUALA LUMPUR, March 24 — Malaysia’s vegetable industry, a critical hub for domestic and regional food security, may be facing what food security experts have described as the “perfect storm” of supply chain disruptions.

The country’s naturally acidic soil means it needs heavy chemical supplementation to grow food, which makes it particularly vulnerable to a supply choke caused by a war that observers predict could drag on for weeks more.

Here is a breakdown of why Malaysia’s vegetable supply is vulnerable and which crops are most at risk.

The ‘60 per cent’ vulnerability

Malaysia is quite dependent on the global market for its farming nutrients, importing over 60 per cent of its mineral fertiliser requirements, food security expert Fatimah Mohamed Arshad explained.

Without a steady flow of potassium, phosphate rock, and specialised NPK compounds, large-scale commercial yields in the country’s two primary growing zones – Cameron Highlands and the lowland peat regions of Johor – would be impossible.

The closing of the Strait of Hormuz will affect the outflow of fertiliser from the major producers from the Gulf countries (Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iran, United Arab Emirates). 

The channel handles nearly 30 per cent of world oil exports, a fifth of the natural gas supply and one-third of global fertiliser exports.

“As for fertiliser, about 50 per cent of global urea exports move through it, 50 per cent of sulphur that’s used to make phosphate fertilisers and roughly 20 to 30 per cent of ammonia,” Fatimah said, adding that an estimated three to four million tonnes of fertiliser shipments per month could be removed from the global market.

Researchers at S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University said Malaysia’s fertiliser production capacity can meet just 39 per cent of domestic demand, while South-east Asia relies on sources outside the region for 82 per cent of its fertiliser imports.

The three crisis ‘choke points’

The first choke point is the effective shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz and continued volatility in the Red Sea, which have severed primary trade routes – vessels carrying potash from Jordan and NPK compounds from Egypt must now reroute around the Cape of Good Hope.

The detour adds 10–14 days to transit times, according to news reports citing shipping experts. Combined with insurance premiums that have nearly tripled, the “landed cost” of fertiliser in Malaysia has spiked significantly.

The second choke point is China’s export curbs. China provides roughly a third of Malaysia’s total fertiliser imports but Beijing has moved to secure its own food domestic supply by curbing nitrogen and phosphate exports in response to rising global energy prices sparked by the Middle East conflict.

Nitrogen and phosphate fertilisers, crucial to grow leafy greens vegetables and staples like chillies, are made of urea and ammonia that are produced using natural gas. 

With the Strait of Hormuz accounting for a third of the global urea trade, the conflict has caused prices to skyrocket.

A standard 25kg bag of nitrogen fertiliser in Malaysia has climbed to RM305 and is projected to reach RM350 following the 2026 Hari Raya celebration, according to some news reports.

Which vegetables could be the most affected?

Analysis of self-sufficiency rate data by the Department of Statistics Malaysia and the Malaysian Agricultural Research and Development Institute and the Depart of Agriculture’s Crop Production Guidelines suggest large-scale key crops that could be vulnerable to the fertiliser import disruptions are:

• Tomatoes: A major export success for Malaysia but dependent on high-purity, water-soluble NPK fertilisers. Production costs are rising by 15 to 20 per cent due to their reliance on “fertigation” (liquid feeding) systems now disrupted by the Strait of Hormuz's disruption.
• Mustard (sawi): These fast-growing leafy greens require constant applications of nitrogen. With China's export curbs, the supply of urea is under immediate pressure.
• Chillies (red & bird’s eye): Despite a low self-sufficiency rate (30 per cent), local demand is massive. Like tomatoes, modern chilli farms use fertigation and are seeing overnight cost increases.
• Cucumbers: Commercial growers rely on specific NPK fertiliser blends (12:12:17:2) often sourced from Russia or Europe to ensure retail-quality size and firmness.
• Round cabbage: A “heavy feeder” that requires massive amounts of phosphorus and potassium, sourced largely from global exporters like Canada and China.
• Brinjal: Intensive fertiliser regimes are required to maintain the deep purple color and skin firmness demanded by export markets.
• Long beans: Though they are legumes, large-scale yields require potassium-rich fertilisers to encourage the flowering and pod length necessary for commercial viability.
• And the impact could be felt as soon as next week, some reports suggest. 

Cameron Highlands Malay Farmers Association chairman Syed Abd Rahman Syed Abd Rashid said vegetable prices would likely surge in a week or two by 50 per cent temporarily, before stabilising at a 30 per cent increase, Berita Harian reported.

What kind of government interventions can we expect?

Fatimah suggested the government prioritise boosting local fertiliser production and agriculture input to mitigate food inflation. 

The crisis, she added, is also an opportunity to rethink the country’s food security policy and reduce import reliance.

“Should increase local production, short term subsidies to farmers, diversify fertiliser to include organic fertiliser and encourage precision farming for efficiency, promote technology smart agriculture,” she said.

She also called for developing alternative local feed using cassava, palm kernel cake, insects, and algae to reduce exposure to supply shocks. 

Livestock feed prices are expected to surge too as supplies are stuck at the Red Sea choke point.

“Malaysia imports large amounts of corn and soybean meal used in poultry and livestock feed. These input are crucial because chicken is Malaysia’s main protein source and feed accounts for 60–70 per cent of poultry production costs,”  Fatimah said.