KUALA LUMPUR, July 20 — Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Barisan Nasional (BN) should win 53 out of the 56 seats during next month’s Selangor state election, according to a forecast by Institut Darul Ehsan (IDE).

The Selangor government-linked think-tank predicted that the rival Perikatan Nasional (PN) is likely to only win seats in Selat Klang, Sijangkang, and Morib.

The simulation, which is based on data from the 15th general election (GE15), predicted that PN will win in Selat Klang with 50.2 per cent of the votes, Sijangkang with 55.6 per cent, and Morib with 50.2 per cent.

The prediction came despite the data also showing that Malay voters between 18 and 60 had been more likely to support PN over any others, particularly the 41-50 age band.

This controverted previous analyses suggesting that the PN coalition’s success then had been due to a wave of support from new and young Malay voters.

Overall, Malays had mostly voted for PN (43.1 per cent) in GE15, then PH (32.2 per cent) and BN (24.7 per cent).

IDE’s interpretation of the voting data showed Malays over 61 were more likely to vote for BN while Chinese and Indian voters trended towards PH regardless of age.

More than 85 per cent of ethnic Chinese in every age category had voted for PH while more than 60 per cent of ethnic Indians of all ages had voted similarly.

IDE culled the GE15 data from the Election Commission (EC), Electoral Roll (DPPR), and from the GE15 results.

The IDE study, titled Voter Perception Study Ahead of the 15th Selangor State Election, polled 1,693 respondents from May 12 to 15 across all 56 state legislative assembly constituencies.