KUALA LUMPUR, May 28 — The number of new Covid-19 cases detected daily in Malaysia today again surpassed the Health Ministry’s predicted figures if Malaysians fail to comply with movement control order’s standard operating procedures (SOPs).

This is not the first time that Malaysia’s daily new Covid-19 cases has outpaced forecasts by the Health Ministry, but comes at a particularly challenging time for healthcare providers with almost daily new records for days now in terms of both the number of Covid-19 deaths and Covid-19 patients in intensive care units (ICUs) amid new variants of the virus.

With just three days left before May ends, Malaysia today recorded 8,290 additional Covid-19 cases. 

Based on Malay Mail’s checks of the Health Ministry’s forecasted figures for January 1 to June 7, 2021, Malaysia was only predicted to reach the 8,000 mark of new Covid-19 cases in the first week of June or around June 5 under the assumption that SOPs are not complied with.

This is based on the latest chart of the Health Ministry’s model of the actual daily observed Covid-19 cases against the forecasted figures under two alternative scenarios of either compliance or non-compliance to SOPs.

The forecasted figures for the scenario of non-compliance to SOPs is marked by the red-coloured area under a line chart in the graph.

Malaysia’s hitting of the 8,000 mark of new Covid-19 cases about a week earlier than forecasted in the Health Ministry chart may perhaps not be entirely surprising, as the daily number of actual Covid-19 cases had already been consistently exceeding the forecasted figures in the scenario of non-compliance of SOPs since May 19 or since nine days ago (if not including today).

May 19 was when Malaysia hit a new record by breaching the 6,000 mark for the first time, with 6,075 new cases recorded on that day. (Malay Mail’s checks today of the same Ministry of Health chart shows that Malaysia was only predicted to hit 6,000 cases by around May 26).

For nine straight days including May 19, Malaysia’s actual daily new Covid-19 cases have continued to be higher than the forecasted figures for the scenario of non-compliance of SOPs.

For nine straight days including May 19, Malaysia’s actual daily new Covid-19 cases have continued to be higher than the forecasted figures for the scenario of non-compliance of SOPs. — Picture from Facebook/Noor Hisham Abdullah

The scenario of non-compliance SOPs in the Health Ministry’s chart was based on an assumption of 1.2 for the R value or reproduction value or rate of infectivity of Covid-19 cases on a seven-day average basis in the country.

Malaysia’s R value on a seven-day average has also been exceeding the forecasted value for eight straight days now since May 20, with May 20’s figure being 1.13 and with yesterday’s figure being 1.14 with peaks of 1.21 and 1.20 over three days in between.

Malaysia’s R value on a seven-day average has also been exceeding the forecasted value for eight straight days now since May 20, with May 20’s figure being 1.13 and with yesterday’s figure being 1.14 with peaks of 1.21 and 1.20 over three days in between. — Picture from Facebook/Noor Hisham Abdullah

In other words, instead of only hitting the forecasted 6,000 figure on around May 26 or two days ago, Malaysia hit that figure about a week earlier than predicted on May 19.

And instead of hitting 8,000 new cases by around June 5, Malaysia hit this figure today which would be slightly more than a week earlier.

Earlier this month (on May 8), Health director-general Tan Sri Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah said the Health Ministry had initially predicted Malaysia would hit 3,000 daily new cases in mid-May which is the Raya season and would hit 5,000 cases by May 29, based on the forecast figures for when there is no compliance to Covid-19 SOPs.

But he said that Malaysia was actually recording a faster increase in the daily new Covid-19 cases than expected. On May 8 itself, 4,519 new cases were recorded.

Based on Malaysia hitting 3,000 daily new cases in early May which he said was two weeks earlier than predicted and the eighth day of May already hitting 4,519, Dr Noor Hisham had given a revised prediction of Malaysia possibly recording 5,000 daily new cases by mid-May and even higher figures by the end of May.

"Means we predict there will be 5,000 cases in mid-May, and end of May it may increase again, so more than 5,000, whether 6,000 or 7,000 depends on us. It’s up to us to break the Covid-19 chain, it’s up to us to take drastic actions to curb the Covid-19 infection,” he had said.