COMMENTARY, Feb 19 ― Even as the 15th general election looms, uncertainty can be found in nearly all the political parties in the country.

Political analysts as well as the average man on the street have similar thoughts: most of the parties cannot be certain of how they will do even if their leaders issue statement after statement saying otherwise.

With Perikatan Nasional (PN), all eyes are on the two main Malay parties that dominate the country's political landscape ― Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu) and Umno, a party which is facing the most turbulence.

PAS is just a partner to make up the numbers as it is a party that looks like it will do better at the polls than either Bersatu or Umno.

Umno is having two annual general assemblies (AGMs) ― one after another; one held last year and another this year which is the party's election year.

Members of the largest Malay-based party in the country is facing a big dilemma as they ponder how to vote and most importantly who to vote for as uncertainty lingers around the party.

Will they again vote for incumbent party president Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi? His cases are coming up in April and if he is found guilty, what happens to the party? Will the party deputy president take over for the next three years for the next party election or will the party hold another vote for president?

This uncertainty has led division leaders to pull the brakes on nominations while other leaders hold off on any plan to contest against the incumbent as the general election approaches.

If Zahid stays on and if his case is postponed, then he still has the power to decide who should contest in the general election because he, as president, will sign the letters of appointment.

The fear is that Zahid may not endorse their candidacies if the divisions do not vote Zahid for party president.

Politically, Umno looks strong for the coming general election although not as strong as in 2018 as its membership is pretty much intact except for some who followed the party’s MPs who are division leaders who jumped to Bersatu after the 2018 general election.

The party’s election machinery, which is the best among all other parties, has not failed the party even in the worst political scenario.

The warlords who will obviously want to stay in the supreme council line-up are mostly supporters of Zahid's and will also want to contest again for parliament or state seats

These warlords will determine, or dictate, who will be recommended for the general election at parliament and state level.

So long as Zahid is still in the driver’s seat, these warlords will continue to control the grassroots.

Thus, Umno has to be very certain before the general election whether to get rid of Zahid or stick by him as this will have grave implications on the party's performance.