KUALA LUMPUR, Aug 4 — Incumbent PKR could see its majority votes for the Sungai Kandis by-election increase on the back of protest support from PAS grassroots who remain staunchly anti-Umno even as the two rivals are seen working together, a pollster predicted.

Merdeka Center director, Ibrahim Suffian, forecasted a significant number of PAS votes going to PKR’s Mohd Zawawi Ahmad Mughni whose image as a pious tahfiz school principal has helped endear him to religious constituents, including among rival supporters.

Despite repeatedly denying to angry grassroot members suspicious of the party’s cordial ties with its rival, PAS leaders have openly campaigned for Umno in Sungai Kandis.

The latter has said it would need support from the Islamists to stand a chance at pulling an upset against three-term incumbent, PKR — a Pakatan Harapan (PH) component.

The total number of votes received by both parties in the 14th general election were still over 5,000 short of the majority won by the late Mat Shuhaimi Shafiei, 50, who died of lymphoma cancer.

"It’s unlikely for Umno to win the Sungai Kandis seat. We think it’s possible for PKR to expand their majority this time round,” Ibrahim told Malay Mail.

"We think not all PAS supporters will vote BN, some may give their votes to the PKR candidate given his good local standing as a principal of a maahad tahfiz, and well known among religiously inclined voters in the area.”

Mat Shuhaimi, a popular reformist who enjoyed close ties with Selangor Mentri Besar Datuk Seri Azmin Ali, helped the party retain the sear with a convincing vote tally in the May elections, a strong showing that underscored PKR’s strength in Selangor, a state it has governed since 2008.

Mat Shuhaimi bagged 23,998 votes despite going against Umno, PAS and a fourth party in a multicornered contest to defeat Umno’s Datuk Kamaruzzaman Johari and PAS’ Mohd Yusof with a 12,480 majority.

Umno and PAS collected 11,518 votes 7,573 votes respectively.

While the 2018 majority decreased slightly from the 2013 election results, analysts said it was only because PAS’ decision to contest had split the Malay votes.

The previous candidate, Xavier Jeyakumar, retained the seat by defeating MIC’s T. Mohan with a15,633 majority, or just 2,000 more than Shuhaimi’s in a straight fight. At the time, PAS was still an ally and member of the now defunct Pakatan Rakyat coalition.

But any hopes for PH to replicate the May 9 result will rest on a large voter turnout, which is doubtful based on turnout patterns shown in past by-elections.

There is likelihood that the Sungai Kandis poll will register a slightly smaller headcount compared to the May 9 turnout, and the absence will be predominant among minority voters or those residing outside the constituency, Ibrahim said.

In the past, external voters have shown inclination to view by-elections as less important or politically inconsequential. So many end up not returning to vote, the Merdeka Center director said.

Banners showing candidates for the sungai Kandis by-election are seen at Kampung Jalan Kebun July 30, 2018. There is likelihood that the Sungai Kandis poll will register a slightly smaller headcount compared to the May 9 turnout. — Picture by Mukhriz Hazim

"A reduced turnout will adversely affect PKR as we anticipate turnout among Chinese voters will be slightly lower compared to the May,” he said.

Combined, Indians and Chinese voters form 28 per cent of Sungai Kandis’ 50,800 electorate, totalling 16 and 12 per cent respectively. But despite their small numbers, their votes are crucial to help Pakatan Harapan offset the shortage in Malay support.

PH received less than a third of support from the country’s ethnic Malay majority in the 14th general election, and fared poorly in Malay-majority states. Majority of the seats won by the coalition in the 14th general election are mixed and urban with a significant minority presence.

If combined, Umno and PAS enjoy the lion’s share of the Malay votes, according to data recently released by think tank, Ilham Centre. Based on this, both the parties have expressed confidence that the voting pattern in Sungai Kandis will mirror that of the national voting trend.

For PH, a decreased majority from a smaller turnout could have broader implications that will be felt beyond Sungai Kandis’ borders.

There are views that a smaller vote tally would lend credence to claims that support for the PH government has plunged tremendously barely three months into power, which would deal a huge blow to its image as a credible substitute to Barisan Nasional.

The Sungai Kandis poll is Umno’s debut as an opposition party since its shock defeat in May. — Picture by Miera Zulyana

But worst, a marked decrease in votes may also give political rivals a much needed boost in a perception war fought at a time when public confidence towards PH’s leadership appear shaky, said University Malaya political analyst Datuk Mohamad Abu Bakar.

"PH is at the point of political saturation now, which means it can do nothing more politically and will be subject to public review of its performance,” he told Malay Mail.

"So that means the outcome of the by-election will be a form of public rating...the quantum of the majority will more or less act as indicator on whether or not its policies are well-received.

"And a large decrease would definitely validate claims and allegations put out by its political rivals,” he added.

The Sungai Kandis poll is Umno’s debut as an opposition party since its shock defeat in May. With the ability to deploy the entire might of its election machinery in a single by-election, it has fought a gritty and energetic campaign.

From the outset, the party’s candidate Datuk Lokman Noor Adam declared the Sungai Kandis contest will act as a referendum on PH’s nascent rule. Campaign messages appeared designed to provoke and tap Malay anger over PH’s pro-minority policies, or support from indecisive voters doubtful about Putrajaya’s ability to keep its GE 14 promises.

But some political analysts will disagree. By-election outcomes in the past, they opined, are often influenced by local issues and scarcely reflect national sentiment.

This may explain why national issues have been largely missing in PKR’s campaign, which instead focused more on personal touches by offering solutions to problems unique to the seat.

Sungai Kandis is an urban state seat of over 50,000 voters located within the Kota Raja parliamentary constituency, and has a super-majority Malay electorate. Two-third of the 50,800 registered voters there are ethnic Malays.