KUALA LUMPUR, Aug 2 — An Umno win in the Sungai Kandis state seat by-election may force the new government to scale back efforts to dismantle race-based affirmative action policies, analysts predicted.

A defeat for incumbent PKR could force conservative segments within the Pakatan Harapan (PH) administration to call for the retention of pro-Bumiputera policies to placate the community. This is to ensure PH’s political survival, but a move like this will risk upsetting the coalition’s multiracial allies and sow discord within its own ranks.

And with only two days left to campaign, top leaders on both sides seem confident of victory.

"[Umno’s win] would indicate the uncomfortable feelings harboured by a certain population segment on the direction PH would like to lead the country towards, namely a more cosmopolitan Malaysia in tune with the mainstream of international society, where livelihood concerns trumps identity politics.

"To backtrack a bit is likely, which would create discord within PH,” political analyst Oh Ei Sun told Malay Mail.

Communal politics has featured heavily in Umno’s campaign in Sungai Kandis, a dominantly Malay majority state seat within the Kota Raja parliamentary constituency northwest of Selangor. Of the 50,800 registered voters there, two thirds are ethnic Malays.

This is also Umno’s maiden contest as an Opposition party, which explains why the Malay party is deploying the entire might of its decades-built machinery in a single by-election to bolster its campaign.

All of its top leaders, including former prime minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak, have made appearances there. And although there are doubts their presence could have any effect on voting, political observers believe it could certainly help inspire loyal campaign workers to push harder.

And the signs have been favourable for Umno so far, party workers have said.

After PAS expressed its unequivocal support and said it would campaign for its rival for "Malay unity’s sake”, Umno’s campaign has had far greater outreach.

Oh said the by-election could point to future co-operation between the two parties which would then lead to a formidable political alliance, but one that could worsen racial tension and deepen the divide between a largely Malay Opposition and a multi-racial ruling coalition pushing for progressive politics.

Both PAS and Umno enjoy support from a similar powerbase — conservative, religious and staunchly nativists.

"Let us not forget 70 per cent of Malay voters did not vote for PH,” Oh noted.

"It was the vote split between Umno and PAS that handed PH victory. And an Umno win here would at least indicate that the 70 per cent still more or less stands with Umno and PAS, and if the latter two combine forces, it would be formidable indeed in the next general election.”

Tugging on Malay sentiments

Umno’s campaign has targeted indecisive Malay fence-sitters. Its candidate, Datuk Lokman Noor Adam, has strategically harped on issues that have irked even some of PH’s Malay voters to tap support from those supportive of pro-Bumiputera policies.

PH’s decision to recognise the Chinese-oriented Unified Examination Certificate (UEC), or Minister of Finance Lim Guan Eng’s issuing an official statement in Chinese were played up heavily.

Umno and PAS have also accused the ruling coalition of failing to fulfil its key 14th general election pledges. They pointed to Putrajaya’s promise to abolish toll, or reduce prices of basic goods, some of the promises the coalition vowed to deliver within 100 days in power.

The Sungai Kandis by-election, Lokman declared at the start of the campaign trail, will act as a referendum against PH’s governance.

"They have failed to deliver, so use Sungai Kandis to send a clear message that you are protesting against their failure… they have lied to us,” he said.

Yet, many analysts are still of the opinion that a by-election outcome may not be an effective measure of sentiment towards PH rule, even in the event that Umno pulls an upset in Sungai Kandis.

Datuk Syed Arabi Syed Abdullah Idid, former International Islamic University Malaysia rector and now director of think tank Kajidata, is of the opinion that past records show by-election results are mostly influenced by issues unique to the constituency, and Sungai Kandis is no exception.

"You look at the Sungai Besar and Kuala Kangsar by-elections. Umno won them, but they did not translate nationally,” he told Malay Mail.

"By-elections are typically influenced by local issues. Seldom do national issues matter.”

Will PAS votes matter?

The Sungai Kandis by-election was called after the death of its incumbent, PKR’s Mat Shuhaimi Mat Shafiei.

In the May 9 polls, he defeated Barisan Nasional’s (BN) Kamaruzzaman Johari and PAS’ Mohd Yusof Abdullah with a majority of over 12,000 votes, bagging 23,998 total votes against the duo’s 11,518 and 7,573 votes respectively

PAS sat out the contest this time, paving way for a three-cornered fight between PH, BN, and an independent candidate.

Umno’s Lokman expressed hope that the PAS votes could bolster Umno’s chances, but even if all of PAS’ votes go to Umno, the party is still more than 5,000 short of the needed votes to win.

Yesterday, PAS told its supporters to refrain from spoiling their votes in the Sungai Kandis by-election, but warning against supporting PH — ostensibly hinting for a vote for BN.

Lokman faces a Sungai Kandis local Mohd Zawawi Ahmad Mughni, a mild-mannered tahfiz school principal. Also in the race is independent Murthi Krishnasamy.

Polling will take place this Saturday.