ALOR SETAR, April 26 — The traditional view that Barisan Nasional will inevitably benefit in multiway contests may not hold true in the current political landscape, suggested a Kedah Umno member here.

Speaking to Malay Mail anonymously, the 67-year-old party stalwart said there were undercurrents of discontent among party divisions, especially Youth wings, which he said were sympathetic to Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia.

In Malaysia’s first-past-the-post voting system, BN customarily profits when more than one rival challenges its candidates as this has a tendency to weaken the Opposition vote.

"I see that many Umno Youth members are upset and some of the Pemuda branches here have shut down completely and they went off to join Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (PPBM),” the Umno member said.

The unhappiness also existed among voters, whom he said were still unhappy with the Goods and Services Tax in addition to grappling with issues such as rising costs.

He went on to predict that Umno would be hit badly in seats outside of strongholds such as Pendang, Baling and Padang Terap.

It will be difficult to predict the outcome in Kedah due to factors such as Umno’s ostensibly receding support, Dr Mahathir’s influence, and PAS’ bid to challenge for power, he added.

Last week Kedah PAS said it will contest in 14 out of the 18 Parliamentary seats and all 36 state seats, creating three-corner fights between the Islamist party, BN and PH throughout the nation's ricebowl.

Universiti Utara Malaysia (UUM) academic and lecturer Azizuddin Mohd Sani agreed with the Umno veteran’s observation, but extended the assessment to the entire country and not just Kedah.

"If BN and PAS depend only on their hardcore supporters, it won’t be enough for them to win the elections while Pakatan Harapan (PH) and their various parties combined makes them stronger as a whole,” said the College of Law, Government and International Studies lecturer.

Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (UKM) Associate Professor Faisal Hazis was more conservative in his reading, however, saying the effects would be limited to states in which PH were led by strong personalities.

Aside from Selangor, Johor, Kedah and Penang, he said BN would still gain if the Opposition cannot arrange direct contests.

He also predicted that the phenomenon could lead to PAS being demolished in Kelantan and Terengganu.

"In this context, if there is a strong leadership and a strong alternative messaging from the Opposition, a multi corner contest could actually benefit the Opposition. But the big question is if this is regional, state based or nationwide,” he said, adding that Kedah will be a tight battle.

Asia Strategy and Leadership Institute Senior Advisor on International Affairs Dr Oh Ei Sun suggested that the current political climate could lead to new alliances as no party or coalition might emerge the clear winner.

"As a result, I think the distinct possibility is PAS, Umno and PH each wins a number of seats, none of which will be enough to form the government,” he said, resurrecting the possibility of the so-called "Unity” government of Umno and PAS lawmakers.

One of caretaker Deputy Prime Minister Datuk Seri Zahid Hamidi’s political secretaries, Datuk Ahmad Masrizal Muhammad, downplayed Kedah Umno’s prognosis.

He expressed confidence that multi-cornered contests would still work to his coalition’s benefit.

"So, I don’t think so we have any problem with that. I think the mood of the people based on the manifesto is very good,” he told Malay Mail.