KUALA LUMPUR, Jan 15 — Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (PPBM) faces an uphill battle in its electoral debut in the 14th general election (GE14), a challenge made tougher by probable three-corner fights with PAS, Politweet predicted.

In a study titled "Election Forecast for Pakatan Harapan (PH) in Peninsular Malaysia (GE14)”, the political social media research firm found that due to PPBM’s seat allocation in Umno strongholds, there was a slim chance for Umno’s latest rival, another Malay-only party, to take home more than a few seats.

"PPBM is contesting rural, Malay-majority seats that would be challenging to win in a straight fight against BN (Barisan Nasional). 35/52 seats were contested by PAS in GE13, which means PPBM will face an even greater challenge in a three-corner fight with PAS,” the report predicted.

Earlier this month, PH announced its seat allocations for GE14 with PPBM contesting 52 seats, PKR 51 seats, DAP 35 seats and Amanah 27 seats. PPBM was set on taking Umno at its home turf — the rural Malay heartland.

A PAS leader reportedly said yesterday that the Islamist opposition party would run in at least 130 parliament seats in the election due this year.

Based on seat allocations, voter sentiments, racial breakdown, past victories, and age group, Politweet foresaw that PPBM could only win 27 per cent collective voter support compared to BN’s whopping 62 per cent, with 11 per cent being fence sitters.

However, its PH partners is expected to do better, with DAP leading the way holding 63 per cent voter support against BN’s 20 per cent, followed by Amanah at 50 per cent voter support against BN’s 35 per cent, and PKR with 40 per cent voter support to BN’s 39 per cent.

"PKR is contesting a mix of seats with a fairly even split between Opposition and BN-leaning voters. DAP is contesting mainly urban/semi-urban, Chinese-majority seats with a large proportion of Opposition-leaning voters.

"Amanah is contesting mostly rural, Malay-majority seats with a large proportion of Opposition-leaning voters. However 26/27 seats were contested by PAS in GE13, which means this large share of voters will be split between both opposition parties.

"If voter sentiment in GE14 remains the same as GE13, we can expect Amanah and PPBM to win few seats,” it reported.

Politweet’s study is based on data from the 2017 first quarter electoral roll.

Looking at the overall voter support, the study found that 45 per cent of new voters were supporting the ruling coalition due to high proportion of new Malay voters in areas that saw stronger BN support in GE13.

"In a previous report we highlighted that Malay voters were starting to turn away from the Opposition in GE13 in many seats on a national scale. How this will impact GE14 will depend on how these new voters are distributed on a per-seat basis,” it reported.