KUALA LUMPUR, Aug 28 — Federal opposition Pakatan Harapan (PH) is unlikely to sway enough Malay voters away from PAS and Umno to support its ambition of wresting Kelantan and Terengganu in the general election, political observers have said.

They attributed this to PH's limited appeal among rural voters in these two Malay heartland states and the new pact’s disadvantage against incumbents Umno and PAS in multi-corner fights.

Ibrahim Suffian, who heads independent pollster Merdeka Center, said while PH will likely pack their rallies there, the crowds may not translate in votes needed to lift the pact’s candidates above those from PAS and Umno in the two states.

"There might be a small Malay wave against the establishment, but without a unified opposition there is very little hope for Pakatan to gain from it. The reason is PAS as an older and much more established party in those Malay heartland states have a larger following.

"In a three-cornered contest involving [Barisan Nasional] against PAS and against the Pakatan parties, the only likely victor is BN," he told Malay Mail Online when contacted yesterday.

The analysts were responding to DAP parliamentary leader Lim Kit Siang's prediction that PH could take control of Kelantan and Terengganu with a 15-per cent swing in Malay votes from the ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition to the opposition pact.

Pacific Research Center's principal adviser Dr Oh Ei Sun said, however, that Lim's scenario is "very unlikely, as votes will either go to Umno or PAS".

He told Malay Mail Online there was little chance that PH would gain support in either state except in "scattered urban centres", as PH's Islamist component Parti Amanah Negara's appeal was limited to towns and cities while Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia has insufficient draw to overcome the better-funded Umno and Islamist party PAS.

Prof Datuk Mohamed Mustafa Ishak, who heads the National Council of Professors' Politics, Security and International Affairs Cluster, also expressed doubt that there would be such a significant swing in the two states towards PH in the inevitable multi-cornered fights.

"Because Kelantan and Terengganu are PAS strongholds, PAS have many strong bases in many parts of Kelantan and Terengganu and the strength of Umno in that two states also cannot be underestimated, because Umno has its own base and influence there in Kelantan and Terengganu.

"So as Kelantan and Terengganu has always been a battleground for Umno and PAS, so if Pakatan comes in the election — [PPBM], or Amanah or even PKR — it will certainly be a three-cornered fight," he told Malay Mail Online when contacted.

He said it would be difficult for new parties to win over these two states, noting that the predicted Malay vote swing may have been possible had all the federal opposition parties remained united.

The problem was demonstrated during two Selangor by-elections contested by Amanah last year, when the fledgling PAS offshoot struggled for recognition.

"The big swing can take place if PAS still remains in Pakatan, so I do not think that 15 per cent swing will happen in Kelantan and Terengganu because of PAS's strong base in these two states, so it's not easy for Pakatan or Amanah to make inroads in Kelantan and Terengganu," he added.

Prof Datuk Mohamad Abu Bakar, a former Universiti Malaya lecturer, similarly said Lim's scenario was only plausible if the fight for Kelantan and Terengganu was between Umno and an opposition pact represented by PAS.

He said Amanah may make some inroads in urban areas, but was yet to penetrate the conservative Malay and rural areas in Kelantan and Terengganu, further noting that PAS and Umno members remain committed to their political parties and may only abstain from voting instead of giving the votes to PH.

"So if there are displeasures about their own party, they may not vote for other party, they may withdraw their support by not going to the polls. They may show their displeasure by not supporting the party but that in no way means they are going to switch allegiance," he said.

The "wafer-thin majority" for both PAS and Umno in seats they battled each other in Kelantan and Terengganu in previous elections show that the bulk of voters there will opt for either party, he said, concluding that PH's Amanah will not be able to wrest these states from the two parties.

Kelantan is currently governed by PAS while Terengganu is led by BN via Umno. Virtually all state seats in the two states were won either by Umno or PAS, except for one in each that went to PKR.

The next general election must be held by August 2018, but may be called earlier.