KUALA LUMPUR, July 29 ― Despite being the dominant political party in Penang, pundits believe the DAP could be signing the death warrant for the fragmented federal Opposition front in the long run if it proceeds with state elections without the explicit consensus of ally PKR.

Political analysts predict the secular party will likely retain all 19 of its seats out of 40 won in Election 2013 if went ahead, but warned that the decision will widen cracks within the Pakatan Harapan partnership that has been dented in the fallout with former ally PAS.

"If they go ahead with the state polls, it will only create a bigger crack within Pakatan and more problems between DAP and PKR.

"Calling this now when the Opposition front is at its weakest does not make sense. How to go to war when they are weak?” Dr Faisal Hazis, associate professor at the Institute of Malaysian and International Studies in Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (UKM), posited.

He said it was clear that when the DAP central executive committee proposed the idea, it had planned to forge ahead with the state polls and were confident of keeping Penang for a third term.

However, he said the party and Pakatan must consider the bigger picture if planned to take on the Barisan Nasional (BN) at the next national elections.

"Ultimately, this is not about winning, this is about sustainability and about Pakatan Harapan's co-existence itself.

"They need to get their act together and form a strong coalition. There are good signs from PAS who wants to join forces for the next elections, so whether they like it or not, they can't win without PAS,” Faisal told Malay Mail Online when contacted this week.

Independent political analyst Khoo Kay Peng said he does not believe the party will go ahead with the elections without consensus from its allies.

"Should DAP insist on going forward, it would mean bye-bye to PH as they will lose without the majority support from Pakatan parties,” he said.

Merdeka Center director Ibrahim Suffian concurred that DAP and PKR will still retain Penang in a snap poll but pointed out it would also trigger multi-corner contests with PAS in some of the Malay dominant constituencies.

"Should it happen, it may lead to losses in the Opposition's Malay seats leading to the eventual state government to be formed mostly by non-Malay legislators that will further polarise politics along ethnic lines,” he told Malay Mail Online.

Ibrahim believed the election is to allow the DAP to hold on to Penang for another five years as it is not confident that voters will continue to support it at the conclusion of the corruption court case against Chief Minister Lim Guan Eng.

He also agreed that if DAP pushed ahead and called for state polls this year, it will only make the pact appear meaningless.

Other options

Faisal said Lim could take a step back from leading Penang while under the corruption spotlight.

"He should be a bigger leader to step down, it is the safer path for him to step down than to go down the risky path of snap polls,” the UKM lecturer said.

Professor Sivamurugan Pandian, a political analyst from Universiti Sains Malaysia’s School of Social Science, said Lim could also letting his two deputies act in his stead while he dealt with the court case.

"He may want to consider or find other options beside having snap elections.

"I think DAP must respect PKR's decision in order to avoid further internal crisis which could lead towards weaker opposition front,” Sivamurugan said.

But Prof Datuk Wira Dr Mohamed Mustafa Ishak said PKR may not have a choice if the DAP were to forcefully call for state polls if it wanted to win back its current 10 state seats.

Even so, the head of the National Council of Professors’ Political, Security and International Affairs Council felt there was no need for state elections now.

"That usually is done when a ruling government is losing support. That's not the case in Penang right now, that's why everyone doesn't see the rationale behind the snap polls,” he said.

He believed this to be the reason behind PKR’s reluctance to acquiesce to polls now when the Pakatan pact still has a strong mandate to see it to 14th general elections.

Universiti Utara Malaysia's Assoc Prof Dr Mohd Azizuddin Mohd Sani said the DAP should just wait out its term.

"If the snap polls happens, DAP can still win it but with a slimmer majority as the Opposition is pretty divided now,” he told Malay Mail Online.

The DAP has repeatedly argued on the need for state elections this year to ensure continuity to Pakatan rule and has gained the support of Amanah, which does not hold any seat in the state legislative assembly, but PKR remains unconvinced.

Though the trial has yet to start, Lim has predicted he will be convicted of the two corruption charges over the alleged approval of a rezoning application by Magnificent Emblem to convert agricultural land to residential and over his purchase of his RM2.8 million house from businesswoman Phang Li Koon at below market value of RM4.27 million.

DAP holds 19 state seats in Penang, PKR 10 seats, PAS one and the remaining 10 are held by BN.