KUALA LUMPUR, June 5 — The race to win the hearts of voters in two suburban west coast parliamentary seats kicks off today and three Malay Muslim parties, each claiming to champion Islam, have cast their hats into the ring.

With the holy fasting month of Ramadan starting tomorrow, the religious card will likely be a common currency among Umno, PAS and its offshoot Parti Amanah Negara in both Sungai Besar, Selangor and Kuala Kangsar, Perak where Malay Muslims form over 67 per cent of the voter population.

But pundits say the spotlight will be on PAS — which has cut off ties with DAP and is now reviewing its political friendship with PKR — as it strives to move forward and claim Putrajaya in the next general election on its own.

Dr Lim Teck Ghee for the Centre for Policy Initiatives said if PAS garnered anything less than 40 to 50 per cent support of the Malay community it would be a bad sign for the party that is aiming to set itself as the foremost Malay Muslim party in Malaysia.

“PAS has more to lose should its two candidates fail to receive a substantial proportion of the votes. Even though the party can be expected to lose, PAS president Datuk Seri Hadi Awang and the present leadership have much riding on a strong PAS performance,” he told Malay Mail Online when contacted.

“Expectations have been raised in the Malay community throughout the country from the party's recent congress publicity and Hadi's private Bill tabling,” he added.

Hadi’s private member’s Bill which seeks to enhance the Syariah Courts (Criminal Jurisdiction) Act 1965 and allow for harsher punishments against Muslims has been a flashpoint since its tabling in Parliament May 26.

Touted by critics as the hudud Bill, the issue has polarised Malaysians, largely along ethnic as well as religious lines with a majority Malay Muslims on one side and everyone else on the other.

Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia associate professor Dr Mohd Faisal Syam Abdol Hazis said that the by-elections would be a test on whether PAS would still receive the non-Malay support they had while in alliance with DAP and PKR that allowed them to expand influence beyond just the states of Kelantan and Terengganu in the last two general elections.

“PAS needs to find out if they would still get the votes of the non-Malays when they stand alone. That was the main contributing reason that these two seat were marginal seats for BN in the past,” he told Malay Mail Online when contacted.

He added that the two by-elections were an opportunity for PAS to finally show their true stand as a political party amid persistent questions over their political cooperation with Umno over Hadi’s Bill.

“To want to be the patrons of Malay Muslim voters, your biggest rival is Umno, so how are they going to challenge Umno especially now when they are saying they want to work together,” he said.

“But of course now with Amanah also joining the race, they may instead set their narrative to go against Amanah, but their stand as Umno’s rival needs to be made clear.”

Both analysts also agreed that while PAS had the most to prove, Umno and the Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition it anchors have the most to lose should they fail to defend both seats.

On the heels of a major victory in the Sarawak state elections which were touted as proof of BN’s continuing relevance, the battle for the parliamentary seats in the peninsula is seen as a more accurate litmus test of Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak’s popularity.

“Even one loss will bring out more concern within Umno and BN that Najib is the main reason for the poor BN performance. The move to replace him with Zahid can be expected to gain momentum,” Lim said.

University of Tasmania’s Asia Institute director James Chin concurred, adding that the results of the twin by-elections would also determine when the next general elections will be called.

“Najib claimed that the strong BN victory in Sarawak shows support for BN. So here we can test his theory. But for me, there is no link between the Sarawak results and the upcoming by-elections,” he said

“How reflective the by-elections results will be of voter sentiment going into GE14 depends on when GE14 will be held, but Umno will use the results as a guide the timing of the next GE.”

The Sungai Besar parliamentary seat which leans closer to a semi-rural state has 42,655 registered voters, 67.18 per cent of whom are Malay, 30.18 per cent Chinese and 1.91 per cent Indian.

Kuala Kangsar’s 33, 540 total voter population can be broken along similar lines. Malays make up 67.96 per cent while the Chinese and Indians form 23.94 per cent and 6.96 per cent respectively.

The two by-elections were called after the deaths of their incumbents in a helicopter crash over Sarawak last month.

In Election 2013, the late Datuk Noriah Kasnon won Sungai Besar for BN by a slim 399-vote majority against PAS candidate, Mohamed Salleh M.Hussin.

BN’s candidate in Sungai Besar this time is Budiman Mohd Zohdi, who is also the assemblyman for Sungai Panjang, one of two state seats that fall within the federal constituency.

Budiman will face another state assemblyman, PAS’s Meru representative Dr Rani Osman, as well as Amanah hopeful Azhar Ab Shukur.

The late Datuk Wan Mohammad Khair-il Anuar Wan Ahmad won the Kuala Kangsar seat by beating PAS candidate Khalil Idham Lim Abdullah and Datuk Kamilia Ibrahim (Independent) with a majority of 1,082 votes.

Wan Mohammad Khair-il’s widow Datin Mastura Mohd Yazid has been chosen as the BN candidate. She is expected to face PAS’s Perak Muslimat chief Dr Najihatussalehah Ahmad, and Amanah representative Dr Ahmad Termizi Ramli, a physicist.

Nomination papers for candidates are open for filing from 9am today to 11am. The Election Commission is expected to announce the official candidates at 11.30am.